Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture, Motor Lublin has a 49% chance to win against Zaglebie Lubin, who has a 24% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.72 for Motor Lublin and 1.16 for Zaglebie Lubin. The model also indicates a 55% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
However, the recent form shows Motor Lublin with a mixed record of W-D-L-L-W-L, while Zaglebie Lubin has L-L-W-W-D-L. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it possible for Zaglebie Lubin to perform better than expected. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin: model vs market
| Source | Motor Lublin | Draw | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.20.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Motor Lublin, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | 2.08 | 1.98 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.52 | +0.00 |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 3.15 | 3.50 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Motor Lublin / Zaglebie Lubin)
- 1.16 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Motor Lublin / Zaglebie Lubin)
- 1.14 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Motor Lublin goals. Columns: Zaglebie Lubin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Motor Lublin or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Zaglebie Lubin) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Motor Lublin win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin recent form
Motor Lublin
3W 1D 2L
Zaglebie Lubin
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Motor Lublin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zaglebie Lubin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Motor Lublin at home only, Zaglebie Lubin away only.
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Motor Lublin 4 · draws 1 · Zaglebie Lubin 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Motor Lublin | 1-0 | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-21 | Zaglebie Lubin | 2-2 | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-05-18 | Motor Lublin | 1-0 | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-11-22 | Zaglebie Lubin | 1-2 | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-10-19 | Motor Lublin | 1-0 | Zaglebie Lubin | Cup |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-23
- Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow 2026-10-24
- Korona Kielce v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-24
- Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Wisla Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slask Wroclaw v Wieczysta Kraków — match page 2026-10-25
- Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock 2026-10-25
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Motor Lublin, previous: Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw: odds and pick
- Motor Lublin, next: Motor Lublin – Raków Częstochowa, 2026-10-27
- Zaglebie Lubin, previous: Zaglebie Lubin v Jagiellonia analysis