Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom preview
In the upcoming match between Unia Skierniewice and Polonia Bytom, the 1X2 probabilities show Polonia Bytom at 40%, while Unia Skierniewice sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.39 for Unia Skierniewice and 1.56 for Polonia Bytom.
The model suggests a 57% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Unia Skierniewice's recent form of L-D-D-W-L-L may impact their performance negatively, making the outcome less predictable.
Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom: model vs market
| Source | Unia Skierniewice | Draw | Polonia Bytom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Polonia Bytom, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unia Skierniewice | 2.57 | 2.44 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.49 | +0.04 |
| Polonia Bytom | 2.28 | 2.45 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Unia Skierniewice and Polonia Bytom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Unia Skierniewice / Polonia Bytom)
- 0.85 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Unia Skierniewice / Polonia Bytom)
- 1.07 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Unia Skierniewice goals. Columns: Polonia Bytom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Unia Skierniewice | 36% | 2.77 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Polonia Bytom | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Unia Skierniewice or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Polonia Bytom) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Bytom win by 2+ | 20% | 4.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Unia Skierniewice and Polonia Bytom recent form
Unia Skierniewice
1W 2D 3L
Polonia Bytom
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Unia Skierniewice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polonia Bytom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Unia Skierniewice at home only, Polonia Bytom away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-23
- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-24
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page 2026-10-24
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page 2026-10-25
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-25
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Unia Skierniewice, previous: Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice: odds and pick
- Polonia Bytom, previous: Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów: odds and pick
- Polonia Bytom, next: Chrobry Głogów vs Polonia Bytom prediction