Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr preview
In the match between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Nassr at 42%, while Al-Ahli Jeddah sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.71 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.64 for Al-Nassr.
The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Al-Ahli Jeddah has two losses in their last six matches, while Al-Nassr has a stronger record with four wins in the same period.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr: model vs market
| Source | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 2.09.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Nassr, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 3.10 | 3.04 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.67 | +0.07 |
| Al-Nassr | 2.11 | 2.07 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.67
- Attack rating (Al-Ahli Jeddah / Al-Nassr)
- 1.59 / 1.55
- Defence rating (Al-Ahli Jeddah / Al-Nassr)
- 1.16 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals. Columns: Al-Nassr goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 33% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Al-Nassr | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Nassr) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win by 2+ | 31% | 3.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr recent form
Al-Ahli Jeddah
4W 0D 2L
Al-Nassr
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Ahli Jeddah at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Nassr away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ahli Jeddah at home only, Al-Nassr away only.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 · draws 3 · Al-Nassr 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Al-Nassr | 2-0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-02 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 3-2 | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-08-23 | Al-Nassr | 2-2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Super Cup |
| 2025-02-13 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2-3 | Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| 2024-09-13 | Al-Nassr | 1-1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| 2024-03-15 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 0-1 | Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| 2023-09-22 | Al-Nassr | 4-3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| 2022-05-28 | Al-Nassr | 1-1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Pro League |
| 2021-11-26 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1-2 | Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| 2021-03-11 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1-2 | Al-Nassr | Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-12-19
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab — team news & stats 2026-12-19
Before and after this match
- Al-Ahli Jeddah, previous: Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Taawon analysis
- Al-Nassr, previous: Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr prediction