Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League match between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Ahli Jeddah at 42%, Al-Nassr at 35%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% chance for both teams to score and the same percentage for Over 2.5 goals.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's expected goals stand at 1.88, while Al-Nassr's is 1.72. Recent form shows Al-Ahli Jeddah with a mixed record of W-L-W-L-L-W, while Al-Nassr has been more consistent with D-W-L-W-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions, which could affect the expected outcomes.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr: model vs market
| Source | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Draw | Al-Nassr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 33% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | +11% | -1% | -10% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Al-Ahli Jeddah / Al-Nassr)
- 1.59 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Al-Ahli Jeddah / Al-Nassr)
- 0.81 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals. Columns: Al-Nassr goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 33% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Al-Nassr | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw) | 58% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Nassr) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win by 2+ | 17% | 5.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr recent form
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3W 0D 3L
Al-Nassr
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Ahli Jeddah at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Al-Nassr away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ahli Jeddah at home only, Al-Nassr away only.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 · draws 0 · Al-Nassr 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Al-Nassr | 2-0 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-02 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 3-2 | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood 2026-10-15
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha — match page 2026-10-15
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh 2026-10-15
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha — match page 2026-10-16
- Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-10-16
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Al-Ahli Jeddah, previous: Al-Fateh – Al-Ahli Jeddah, 2026-10-09
- Al-Nassr, previous: Al-Nassr vs Al Diriyah prediction