Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon

· Alinma Stadium, Jeddah

Alin prediction Al-Ahli Jeddah to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-Ahli JeddahDrawAl Taawon
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 0.86.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-Ahli JeddahDrawAl Taawon
Model76%15%8%
Market———
Published76%15%8%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.75Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.86Al Taawon
Total expected goals
3.61
Attack rating (Al-Ahli Jeddah / Al Taawon)
1.59 / 0.52
Defence rating (Al-Ahli Jeddah / Al Taawon)
1.16 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1 6.8% 7.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 2 10.2% 8.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.4% 8.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 12.6% 10.8% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3%

Rows: Al-Ahli Jeddah goals. Columns: Al Taawon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Ahli Jeddah76%1.31
Draw15%6.55
Al Taawon8%11.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.33
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.20
Double chance1X (Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw)92%1.09
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Al Taawon)24%4.23
Handicap -1Al-Ahli Jeddah win by 2+57%1.77
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon recent form

Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W 0D 2L
Al Taawon 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al Taawon away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 0 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ahli Jeddah at home only, Al Taawon away only.

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 6 · draws 2 · Al Taawon 2.

Al-Ahli JeddahDrawsAl Taawon
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-11Al Taawon1-2Al-Ahli JeddahSaudi Arabia Pro League
2026-01-14Al-Ahli Jeddah2-1Al TaawonSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-05-07Al-Ahli Jeddah2-0Al TaawonPro League
2024-12-07Al Taawon2-4Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2024-03-09Al Taawon0-1Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2023-09-16Al-Ahli Jeddah3-2Al TaawonPro League
2022-02-05Al-Ahli Jeddah1-1Al TaawonPro League
2021-09-12Al Taawon1-1Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2021-05-07Al Taawon4-2Al-Ahli JeddahPro League
2021-01-02Al-Ahli Jeddah0-3Al TaawonPro League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match