Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha

· Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Kobar

Alin prediction Al-Qadisiyah FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-Qadisiyah FCDrawAl-Fayha
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 1.03.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Qadisiyah FC is the favourite, not a value bet.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-Qadisiyah FCDrawAl-Fayha
Model75%15%10%
Market82%11%7%
Published80%12%8%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Qadisiyah FC, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.10Now 1.29 +0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Qadisiyah FC1.101.29+0.19
Draw9.205.30-3.90
Al-Fayha14.639.65-4.98

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.91Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.03Al-Fayha
Total expected goals
3.94
Attack rating (Al-Qadisiyah FC / Al-Fayha)
1.69 / 0.96
Defence rating (Al-Qadisiyah FC / Al-Fayha)
0.74 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1 5.1% 6.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 2 8.2% 8.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 3 8.0% 8.2% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 4+ 11.9% 12.2% 6.3% 2.2% 0.7%

Rows: Al-Qadisiyah FC goals. Columns: Al-Fayha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Qadisiyah FC80%1.25
Draw12%8.10
Al-Fayha8%13.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.05
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw)92%1.08
12 (either side)88%1.14
X2 (draw or Al-Fayha)20%5.00
Handicap -1Al-Qadisiyah FC win by 2+56%1.78
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha recent form

Al-Qadisiyah FC 4W 1D 1L
Al-Fayha 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.17
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 9 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al-Fayha away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Qadisiyah FC at home only, Al-Fayha away only.

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 4 · draws 1 · Al-Fayha 3.

Al-Qadisiyah FCDrawsAl-Fayha
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Al-Fayha1-2Al-Qadisiyah FCSaudi Arabia Pro League
2026-01-14Al-Qadisiyah FC5-0Al-FayhaSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-04-12Al-Fayha2-1Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
2024-11-07Al-Qadisiyah FC2-0Al-FayhaPro League
2019-02-02Al-Qadisiyah FC2-0Al-FayhaPro League
2018-09-28Al-Fayha4-2Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
2018-02-04Al-Fayha2-0Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League
2017-10-19Al-Qadisiyah FC1-1Al-FayhaPro League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match