Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh

· Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, Hasa

Alin prediction Al-Fateh to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-FatehDrawAl Riyadh
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-FatehDrawAl Riyadh
Model38%28%34%
Market———
Published38%28%34%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Al-Fateh
1.35Al Riyadh
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Al-Fateh / Al Riyadh)
0.71 / 0.73
Defence rating (Al-Fateh / Al Riyadh)
1.29 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 7.1% 5.6% 2.5% 1.1% 1 7.7% 13.2% 8.1% 3.6% 1.6% 2 6.4% 8.6% 5.8% 2.6% 1.2% 3 3.1% 4.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6% 4+ 1.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Al-Fateh goals. Columns: Al Riyadh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Fateh38%2.62
Draw28%3.60
Al Riyadh34%2.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.74
No42%2.36
Double chance1X (Al-Fateh or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Al Riyadh)62%1.62
Handicap -1Al-Fateh win by 2+19%5.38
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh recent form

Al-Fateh 1W 0D 5L
Al Riyadh 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Fateh at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
2.17
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.

Al Riyadh away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Fateh at home only, Al Riyadh away only.

Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Al-Fateh 2 · draws 3 · Al Riyadh 2.

Al-FatehDrawsAl Riyadh
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Al Riyadh1-0Al-FatehSaudi Arabia Pro League
2026-01-13Al-Fateh3-1Al RiyadhSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-10-27Al-Fateh2-0Al RiyadhKing's Cup
2025-04-23Al Riyadh2-2Al-FatehPro League
2024-11-28Al-Fateh1-2Al RiyadhPro League
2024-05-02Al-Fateh2-2Al RiyadhPro League
2023-11-09Al Riyadh1-1Al-FatehPro League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match