Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

· Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium, Daman

Alin prediction Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-EttifaqDrawAl-Hilal Saudi FC
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.01.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-EttifaqDrawAl-Hilal Saudi FC
Model17%23%60%
Market———
Published17%23%60%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Al-Ettifaq
2.04Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Total expected goals
3.05
Attack rating (Al-Ettifaq / Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
1.01 / 1.53
Defence rating (Al-Ettifaq / Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
0.93 / 0.63

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 8.7% 9.9% 6.7% 5.5% 1 3.8% 10.7% 10.0% 6.8% 5.5% 2 2.4% 4.9% 5.0% 3.4% 2.8% 3 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 4+ 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Al-Ettifaq goals. Columns: Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Ettifaq17%5.91
Draw23%4.39
Al-Hilal Saudi FC60%1.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.42
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.28
Double chance1X (Al-Ettifaq or draw)40%2.52
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC)83%1.20
Handicap -1Al-Hilal Saudi FC win by 2+38%2.66
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC recent form

Al-Ettifaq 2W 3D 1L
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Ettifaq at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-3
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.17
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ettifaq at home only, Al-Hilal Saudi FC away only.

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 0 · draws 2 · Al-Hilal Saudi FC 8.

Al-EttifaqDrawsAl-Hilal Saudi FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-13Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-0Al-EttifaqSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-10-18Al-Ettifaq0-5Al-Hilal Saudi FCSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-04-11Al-Ettifaq1-1Al-Hilal Saudi FCPro League
2024-11-08Al-Hilal Saudi FC3-1Al-EttifaqPro League
2024-02-26Al-Ettifaq0-2Al-Hilal Saudi FCPro League
2023-08-28Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-0Al-EttifaqPro League
2023-03-18Al-Hilal Saudi FC3-0Al-EttifaqPro League
2022-12-21Al-Hilal Saudi FC4-0Al-EttifaqKing's Cup
2022-10-06Al-Ettifaq0-0Al-Hilal Saudi FCPro League
2022-05-11Al-Ettifaq0-2Al-Hilal Saudi FCPro League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match