Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM

· Alinma Stadium, Jeddah

Alin prediction Al-Ittihad FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-Ittihad FCDrawNEOM
  • WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Ittihad FC is the favourite, not a value bet.

Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-Ittihad FCDrawNEOM
Model39%29%32%
Market48%25%27%
Published46%26%28%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Ittihad FC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.92Now 1.96 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Ittihad FC1.921.96+0.04
Draw3.753.53-0.22
NEOM3.483.40-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Ittihad FC and NEOM expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Al-Ittihad FC
1.20NEOM
Total expected goals
2.54
Attack rating (Al-Ittihad FC / NEOM)
1.24 / 0.96
Defence rating (Al-Ittihad FC / NEOM)
0.87 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 8.2% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 1 9.3% 13.9% 7.6% 3.1% 1.2% 2 7.0% 8.5% 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% 3 3.1% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Al-Ittihad FC goals. Columns: NEOM goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Ittihad FC46%2.18
Draw26%3.86
NEOM28%3.56
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.14
Under 2.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.89
No47%2.12
Double chance1X (Al-Ittihad FC or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or NEOM)54%1.85
Handicap -1Al-Ittihad FC win by 2+18%5.50
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Ittihad FC and NEOM recent form

Al-Ittihad FC 4W 1D 1L
NEOM 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Ittihad FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

NEOM away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ittihad FC at home only, NEOM away only.

Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 1 · draws 0 · NEOM 1.

Al-Ittihad FCDrawsNEOM
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-08Al-Ittihad FC3-4NEOMSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-12-31NEOM1-3Al-Ittihad FCSaudi Arabia Pro League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match