Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr

· Al Hazm Club Stadium, Ar Rass

Alin prediction Al-Nassr to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-HazmDrawAl-Nassr
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.14.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Nassr is the favourite, not a value bet.

Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-HazmDrawAl-Nassr
Model14%18%67%
Market9%13%78%
Published10%15%75%
Edge+1%+1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Nassr, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.19Now 1.20 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Hazm10.439.89-0.54
Draw6.735.75-0.98
Al-Nassr1.191.20+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Al-Hazm
2.57Al-Nassr
Total expected goals
3.72
Attack rating (Al-Hazm / Al-Nassr)
0.87 / 1.55
Defence rating (Al-Hazm / Al-Nassr)
1.16 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 5.5% 8.0% 6.9% 8.2% 1 2.1% 7.9% 9.2% 7.9% 9.4% 2 1.6% 4.1% 5.3% 4.5% 5.4% 3 0.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8%

Rows: Al-Hazm goals. Columns: Al-Nassr goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Hazm10%10.03
Draw15%6.82
Al-Nassr75%1.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.54
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.75
Double chance1X (Al-Hazm or draw)25%4.06
12 (either side)85%1.17
X2 (draw or Al-Nassr)90%1.11
Handicap -1Al-Nassr win by 2+47%2.13
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr recent form

Al-Hazm 0W 2D 4L
Al-Nassr 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Hazm at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-2
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Al-Nassr away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.40
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Hazm at home only, Al-Nassr away only.

Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al-Hazm 1 · draws 1 · Al-Nassr 8.

Al-HazmDrawsAl-Nassr
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21Al-Nassr4-0Al-HazmSaudi Arabia Pro League
2025-10-25Al-Hazm0-2Al-NassrSaudi Arabia Pro League
2024-09-23Al-Hazm1-2Al-NassrKing's Cup
2024-02-29Al-Nassr4-4Al-HazmPro League
2023-09-02Al-Hazm1-5Al-NassrPro League
2022-06-23Al-Hazm1-4Al-NassrPro League
2021-12-26Al-Nassr2-1Al-HazmPro League
2020-02-22Al-Hazm0-2Al-NassrPro League
2019-09-20Al-Nassr0-1Al-HazmPro League
2019-05-11Al-Hazm0-3Al-NassrPro League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match