Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah

· Al Majma’a Sport City, Madimaa

Alin prediction Al Diriyah to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-Faisaly FCDrawAl Diriyah
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-Faisaly FCDrawAl Diriyah
Model33%31%36%
Market———
Published33%31%36%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al-Faisaly FC and Al Diriyah expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Al-Faisaly FC
1.19Al Diriyah
Total expected goals
2.31
Attack rating (Al-Faisaly FC / Al Diriyah)
0.83 / 0.66
Defence rating (Al-Faisaly FC / Al Diriyah)
1.25 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.3% 10.5% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% 1 9.8% 14.6% 7.9% 3.1% 1.2% 2 6.3% 7.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 3 2.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Al-Faisaly FC goals. Columns: Al Diriyah goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Faisaly FC33%3.04
Draw31%3.23
Al Diriyah36%2.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.46
Under 2.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.07
No52%1.93
Double chance1X (Al-Faisaly FC or draw)64%1.57
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Al Diriyah)67%1.49
Handicap -1Al Diriyah win by 2+16%6.31
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Al-Faisaly FC and Al Diriyah recent form

Al-Faisaly FC 2W 1D 3L
Al Diriyah 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Faisaly FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-3
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.

Al Diriyah away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Faisaly FC at home only, Al Diriyah away only.

Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Diriyah head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Al-Faisaly FC 0 · draws 2 · Al Diriyah 0.

Al-Faisaly FCDrawsAl Diriyah
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07Al-Faisaly FC2-2Al DiriyahDivision 1
2025-11-23Al Diriyah1-1Al-Faisaly FCDivision 1

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match