Updated

Saudi Arabia Pro League · Matchday 13Postponed

Abha vs Al Shabab

· Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Khamis Mushait

Alin prediction Al Shabab to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AbhaDrawAl Shabab
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.85.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al Shabab is the favourite, not a value bet.

Abha vs Al Shabab: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAbhaDrawAl Shabab
Model15%23%62%
Market20%23%57%
Published19%23%58%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Abha vs Al Shabab odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al Shabab, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 1.85Now 1.83 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Abha3.763.80+0.04
Draw3.743.66-0.08
Al Shabab1.851.83-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Abha and Al Shabab expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85Abha
1.93Al Shabab
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Abha / Al Shabab)
0.58 / 1.30
Defence rating (Abha / Al Shabab)
1.03 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Abha vs Al Shabab score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 10.9% 11.5% 7.4% 5.5% 1 4.3% 11.2% 9.8% 6.3% 4.7% 2 2.3% 4.4% 4.2% 2.7% 2.0% 3 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Abha goals. Columns: Al Shabab goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Abha vs Al Shabab goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Abha vs Al Shabab

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Abha19%5.31
Draw23%4.32
Al Shabab58%1.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.99
No50%2.01
Double chance1X (Abha or draw)42%2.38
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Al Shabab)81%1.23
Handicap -1Al Shabab win by 2+38%2.65
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Abha and Al Shabab recent form

Abha 0W 2D 4L
Al Shabab 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Abha at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al Shabab away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Abha at home only, Al Shabab away only.

Abha vs Al Shabab head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Abha 2 · draws 3 · Al Shabab 5.

AbhaDrawsAl Shabab
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-09-22Abha1-1Al ShababKing's Cup
2024-04-18Al Shabab5-0AbhaPro League
2023-10-28Abha2-1Al ShababPro League
2023-02-14Al Shabab2-0AbhaPro League
2022-09-01Abha0-4Al ShababPro League
2022-01-08Al Shabab1-1AbhaPro League
2021-08-12Abha2-1Al ShababPro League
2021-01-30Abha2-3Al ShababPro League
2020-10-17Al Shabab1-0AbhaPro League
2020-08-24Al Shabab1-1AbhaPro League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match