Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab preview
In the upcoming match between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Ittihad FC at 52%, Al Shabab at 25%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Al-Ittihad FC, which has a 10% chance of occurring.
Al-Ittihad FC has an expected goals figure of 2.05 compared to Al Shabab's 1.38. With 61% for Over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, there is potential for a high-scoring game. However, Al Shabab's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches, which could affect their performance.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab: model vs market
| Source | Al-Ittihad FC | Draw | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 22% | 25% |
| Published | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Ittihad FC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ittihad FC | 1.89 | 1.75 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Al Shabab | 3.41 | 3.65 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (Al-Ittihad FC / Al Shabab)
- 1.24 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Al-Ittihad FC / Al Shabab)
- 0.87 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Ittihad FC goals. Columns: Al Shabab goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Al Shabab | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Ittihad FC or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Shabab) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ittihad FC win by 2+ | 23% | 4.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab recent form
Al-Ittihad FC
4W 1D 1L
Al Shabab
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Ittihad FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Al Shabab away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ittihad FC at home only, Al Shabab away only.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 6 · draws 1 · Al Shabab 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Al Shabab | 3-2 | Al-Ittihad FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-12-27 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2-0 | Al Shabab | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-11-29 | Al-Ittihad FC | 4-1 | Al Shabab | King's Cup |
| 2025-05-20 | Al Shabab | 2-3 | Al-Ittihad FC | Pro League |
| 2025-04-01 | Al-Ittihad FC | 3-2 | Al Shabab | King's Cup |
| 2025-01-22 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2-1 | Al Shabab | Pro League |
| 2024-04-26 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1-3 | Al Shabab | Pro League |
| 2023-11-03 | Al Shabab | 1-0 | Al-Ittihad FC | Pro League |
| 2023-04-27 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2-1 | Al Shabab | Pro League |
| 2023-01-09 | Al Shabab | 1-1 | Al-Ittihad FC | Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-12-19
- Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2027-03-06
Before and after this match
- Al-Ittihad FC, previous: Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM: odds and pick
- Al Shabab, previous: Abha – Al Shabab, 2026-11-05