Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League, Al-Ittihad FC has a 61% chance to win against Al Shabab, who has a 16% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Al-Ittihad's expected goals of 2.02 compared to Al Shabab's 0.94.
Al-Ittihad FC is in strong recent form with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Al Shabab has struggled, recording 4 draws and 2 losses in the same period. Although our model suggests a high probability for Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 54%, a surprising performance from Al Shabab could change the outcome.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab: model vs market
| Source | Al-Ittihad FC | Draw | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Al-Ittihad FC / Al Shabab)
- 1.16 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Al-Ittihad FC / Al Shabab)
- 0.88 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Ittihad FC goals. Columns: Al Shabab goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ittihad FC | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Al Shabab | 16% | 6.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Ittihad FC or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Shabab) | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ittihad FC win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab recent form
Al-Ittihad FC
5W 1D 0L
Al Shabab
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Ittihad FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Al Shabab away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Ittihad FC at home only, Al Shabab away only.
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 1 · draws 0 · Al Shabab 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Al Shabab | 3-2 | Al-Ittihad FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-12-27 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2-0 | Al Shabab | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood 2026-10-15
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha — match page 2026-10-15
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh 2026-10-15
- Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha — match page 2026-10-16
- Al Riyadh v Al-Hilal Saudi FC — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Al-Ittihad FC, previous: Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Ittihad FC analysis
- Al Shabab, previous: Al Shabab – Al Taawon, 2026-10-11