Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League match between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Riyadh at 6%, a draw at 13%, and Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 81%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12% chance. Al-Hilal has a strong expected goals figure of 2.87 compared to Al Riyadh's 0.70, indicating a significant difference in attacking potential.
However, there is a 48% chance that both teams will score, which could challenge the expected outcome. Al Riyadh's recent form includes 2 draws and 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Al-Hilal is on a winning streak with 6 wins in their last 6 games. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: model vs market
| Source | Al Riyadh | Draw | Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Al Riyadh / Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
- 0.82 / 1.69
- Defence rating (Al Riyadh / Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
- 1.20 / 0.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Riyadh goals. Columns: Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Riyadh | 6% | 17.31 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.59 | |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Riyadh or draw) | 19% | 5.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC) | 94% | 1.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win by 2+ | 62% | 1.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC recent form
Al Riyadh
2W 2D 2L
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Riyadh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Riyadh at home only, Al-Hilal Saudi FC away only.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al Riyadh 0 · draws 1 · Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Al Riyadh | 1-1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-08-29 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2-0 | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Kholood 2026-10-15
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Fayha — match page 2026-10-15
- Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh 2026-10-15
- Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Al-Qadisiyah FC v Abha — match page 2026-10-16
- Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Al Riyadh, previous: Al-Fayha v Al Riyadh analysis
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC, previous: Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Ittihad FC analysis