Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC preview
In the upcoming match between Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Riyadh at 6%, a draw at 12%, and Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 81%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a probability of 11%. Al-Hilal's strong recent form, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, supports their high probability of winning.
While Al-Hilal is favored, the model indicates a 52% chance for both teams to score, which could change the dynamics of the match. Additionally, Al Riyadh's expected goals of 0.65 suggest they may struggle to find the net, impacting the potential for Over 2.5 goals, which stands at 69%.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: model vs market
| Source | Al Riyadh | Draw | Al-Hilal Saudi FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 15% | 78% |
| Market | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| Published | 6% | 12% | 81% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.18, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh | 16.62 | 15.00 | -1.62 |
| Draw | 9.25 | 7.80 | -1.45 |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1.10 | 1.12 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.55
- Attack rating (Al Riyadh / Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
- 0.73 / 1.53
- Defence rating (Al Riyadh / Al-Hilal Saudi FC)
- 1.29 / 0.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Riyadh goals. Columns: Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Riyadh | 6% | 15.62 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.03 | |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Riyadh or draw) | 19% | 5.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC) | 94% | 1.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC win by 2+ | 61% | 1.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Riyadh and Al-Hilal Saudi FC recent form
Al Riyadh
2W 2D 2L
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Riyadh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Riyadh at home only, Al-Hilal Saudi FC away only.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Al Riyadh 0 · draws 2 · Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Al Riyadh | 1-1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-08-29 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2-0 | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-02-14 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1-1 | Al Riyadh | Pro League |
| 2024-09-14 | Al Riyadh | 0-3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Pro League |
| 2024-03-08 | Al Riyadh | 1-3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Pro League |
| 2023-09-15 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6-1 | Al Riyadh | Pro League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Al Riyadh, previous: Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh prediction
- Al-Hilal Saudi FC, previous: Al-Ettifaq v Al-Hilal Saudi FC analysis