Livingston vs Ayr Utd: model vs market
| Source | Livingston | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | -2% | +4% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Livingston vs Ayr Utd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Livingston, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 1.54 | 1.55 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.00 | +0.10 |
| Ayr Utd | 5.25 | 5.00 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Livingston and Ayr Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Livingston / Ayr Utd)
- 1.20 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Livingston / Ayr Utd)
- 1.03 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Livingston vs Ayr Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Livingston goals. Columns: Ayr Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Livingston vs Ayr Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Livingston vs Ayr Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Ayr Utd | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Livingston or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Ayr Utd) | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Livingston win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Livingston and Ayr Utd recent form
Livingston
3W 1D 2L
Ayr Utd
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Livingston at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ayr Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Livingston at home only, Ayr Utd away only.
Livingston vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Livingston 6 · draws 0 · Ayr Utd 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-18 | Livingston | 5-0 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2025-02-22 | Ayr Utd | 1-2 | Livingston | Championship |
| 2024-12-21 | Livingston | 0-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-10-19 | Ayr Utd | 1-2 | Livingston | Championship |
| 2023-08-19 | Livingston | 2-0 | Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| 2020-11-28 | Livingston | 4-0 | Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| 2019-07-16 | Livingston | 2-1 | Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| 2012-04-14 | Livingston | 0-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2012-03-06 | Livingston | 1-2 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2012-02-25 | Ayr Utd | 3-1 | Livingston | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Partick v Arbroath — match page 2026-10-03
- Morton vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Queen's Park vs Inverness CT 2026-10-13