Partick vs Arbroath: model vs market
| Source | Partick | Draw | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 39% | 15% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 13% |
| Published | 61% | 25% | 13% |
| Edge | -21% | +18% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.94 vs 0.43.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Partick vs Arbroath odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Partick, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Partick | 1.44 | 1.37 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.40 | +0.25 |
| Arbroath | 6.70 | 7.20 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Partick and Arbroath expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.37
- Attack rating (Partick / Arbroath)
- 0.73 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Partick / Arbroath)
- 0.57 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Partick vs Arbroath score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Partick goals. Columns: Arbroath goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Partick vs Arbroath goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 22%
- No goals (0–0)
- 27%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Partick vs Arbroath
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Partick | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Arbroath | 13% | 7.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16% | 6.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 22% | 4.51 |
| No | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Partick or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Arbroath) | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Partick win by 2+ | 18% | 5.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Partick and Arbroath recent form
Partick
2W 3D 1L
Arbroath
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Partick at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Arbroath away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Partick at home only, Arbroath away only.
Partick vs Arbroath head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Partick 4 · draws 4 · Arbroath 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Arbroath | 0-0 | Partick | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-02-28 | Partick | 0-0 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-12-13 | Arbroath | 2-1 | Partick | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-10-04 | Partick | 1-1 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2024-03-23 | Arbroath | 0-1 | Partick | Championship |
| 2024-01-06 | Partick | 4-0 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 2023-11-04 | Arbroath | 1-3 | Partick | Championship |
| 2023-09-23 | Partick | 0-3 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 2023-04-29 | Partick | 2-0 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 2023-02-25 | Arbroath | 0-0 | Partick | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Morton vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- Queen's Park vs Inverness CT 2026-10-13