Morton vs Raith Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Morton | Draw | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 24% | 63% |
| Market | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Published | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Raith Rovers below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Morton vs Raith Rovers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Raith Rovers, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 5.20 | 5.50 | +0.30 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.80 | +0.05 |
| Raith Rovers | 1.57 | 1.55 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Morton and Raith Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Morton / Raith Rovers)
- 0.64 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Morton / Raith Rovers)
- 1.46 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Morton vs Raith Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Morton goals. Columns: Raith Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Morton vs Raith Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Morton vs Raith Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 16% | 6.40 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Raith Rovers | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Morton or draw) | 40% | 2.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Raith Rovers) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win by 2+ | 38% | 2.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Morton and Raith Rovers recent form
Morton
0W 1D 5L
Raith Rovers
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Morton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Raith Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Morton at home only, Raith Rovers away only.
Morton vs Raith Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Morton 2 · draws 6 · Raith Rovers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Raith Rovers | 3-2 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-02-14 | Morton | 0-0 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-11-01 | Raith Rovers | 1-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-09-06 | Morton | 0-1 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-04-26 | Raith Rovers | 1-1 | Morton | Championship |
| 2025-03-25 | Morton | 3-3 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2024-11-16 | Raith Rovers | 2-3 | Morton | Championship |
| 2024-10-05 | Morton | 2-0 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2024-04-27 | Morton | 0-0 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2024-02-27 | Raith Rovers | 0-0 | Morton | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Livingston vs Ayr Utd 2026-10-03
- Partick v Arbroath — match page 2026-10-03
- Queen's Park vs Inverness CT 2026-10-13