Queen's Park vs Inverness CT: model vs market
| Source | Queen's Park | Draw | Inverness CT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 29% | 56% |
| Market | 20% | 25% | 56% |
| Published | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Queen's Park vs Inverness CT odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inverness CT, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Park | 4.88 | 4.62 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 3.70 | +0.03 |
| Inverness CT | 1.62 | 1.64 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Queen's Park and Inverness CT expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (Queen's Park / Inverness CT)
- 0.54 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Queen's Park / Inverness CT)
- 1.24 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Queen's Park vs Inverness CT score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Queen's Park goals. Columns: Inverness CT goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Queen's Park vs Inverness CT goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Queen's Park vs Inverness CT
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Queen's Park | 18% | 5.41 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Inverness CT | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.81 |
| No | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Queen's Park or draw) | 44% | 2.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Inverness CT) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inverness CT win by 2+ | 29% | 3.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Queen's Park and Inverness CT recent form
Queen's Park
1W 1D 4L
Inverness CT
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Queen's Park at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inverness CT away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Queen's Park at home only, Inverness CT away only.
Queen's Park vs Inverness CT head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Queen's Park 5 · draws 2 · Inverness CT 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Queen's Park | 0-1 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2024-02-03 | Inverness CT | 0-1 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 2023-12-09 | Queen's Park | 1-4 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2023-08-05 | Inverness CT | 1-2 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 2023-03-18 | Queen's Park | 2-1 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2023-01-31 | Inverness CT | 0-2 | Queen's Park | FA Cup |
| 2023-01-14 | Inverness CT | 0-0 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 2022-11-12 | Queen's Park | 2-1 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2022-07-30 | Inverness CT | 1-1 | Queen's Park | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline — match page 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Queen's Park, next: Morton vs Queen's Park prediction
- Inverness CT, next: Inverness CT vs Arbroath: odds and pick