Inverness CT vs Arbroath Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Inverness CT vs Arbroath: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Inverness CT	Draw	Arbroath
Model	58%	27%	15%
Market	62%	23%	15%
Published	61%	24%	15%
Edge	-4%	+4%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.67.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Inverness CT vs Arbroath odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Inverness CT, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.54Now 1.45 -0.09

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Inverness CT	1.54	1.45	-0.09
Draw	3.75	3.89	+0.14
Arbroath	5.50	6.12	+0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Inverness CT and Arbroath expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.58Inverness CT

0.67Arbroath

Total expected goals: 2.25
Attack rating (Inverness CT / Arbroath): 1.06 / 0.66
Defence rating (Inverness CT / Arbroath): 0.96 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inverness CT vs Arbroath score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.6% 6.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1 15.5% 12.3% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.1% 8.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3 6.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Inverness CT goals. Columns: Arbroath goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inverness CT vs Arbroath goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 40%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inverness CT vs Arbroath

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Inverness CT	61%	1.64
	Draw	24%	4.13
	Arbroath	15%	6.80
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.56
	Under 2.5	61%	1.64
Both teams to score	Yes	40%	2.50
	No	60%	1.67
Double chance	1X (Inverness CT or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Arbroath)	39%	2.57
Handicap -1	Inverness CT win by 2+	32%	3.12
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inverness CT and Arbroath recent form

Inverness CT 3W 1D 2L

Arbroath 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inverness CT at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-1
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 3 of 5

They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Arbroath away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-4
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 0.40
Goals against / match: 2.20
Clean sheets: 0 of 5

They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Inverness CT at home only, Arbroath away only.

Inverness CT vs Arbroath head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Inverness CT 3 · draws 3 · Arbroath 4.

30% 30% 40%

Inverness CTDrawsArbroath

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-08-08	Arbroath	0-0	Inverness CT	Scotland Championship
2025-04-26	Inverness CT	3-0	Arbroath	League One
2025-02-08	Arbroath	3-0	Inverness CT	League One
2024-12-14	Inverness CT	0-2	Arbroath	League One
2024-10-05	Arbroath	1-0	Inverness CT	League One
2024-07-23	Inverness CT	0-0	Arbroath	League Cup
2024-04-06	Inverness CT	2-1	Arbroath	Championship
2024-02-24	Arbroath	1-1	Inverness CT	Championship
2023-12-16	Inverness CT	1-2	Arbroath	Championship
2023-09-30	Arbroath	2-3	Inverness CT	Championship

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Ayr Utd vs Partick 2026-10-16
Morton vs Queen's Park — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Dunfermline v Livingston — match page 2026-10-17
Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-17

Before and after this match

Inverness CT, previous: Queen's Park vs Inverness CT prediction
Inverness CT, next: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT: odds and pick
Arbroath, previous: Arbroath v Morton analysis
Arbroath, next: Livingston vs Arbroath prediction