Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT preview
Raith Rovers face Inverness CT with a 46% probability of winning compared to 24% for Inverness CT. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Raith Rovers' expected goals of 1.32 against Inverness CT's 0.88. The recent form shows Raith Rovers with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Inverness CT has 4 wins in the same period.
The model suggests a 38% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score. This could change if Inverness CT's strong recent form continues or if Raith Rovers struggles to convert their chances. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT: model vs market
| Source | Raith Rovers | Draw | Inverness CT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 31% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 31% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.88.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Raith Rovers and Inverness CT expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Raith Rovers / Inverness CT)
- 1.18 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Raith Rovers / Inverness CT)
- 0.75 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Raith Rovers goals. Columns: Inverness CT goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raith Rovers | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Inverness CT | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Raith Rovers or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Inverness CT) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win by 2+ | 22% | 4.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Raith Rovers and Inverness CT recent form
Raith Rovers
3W 2D 1L
Inverness CT
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Raith Rovers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inverness CT away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Raith Rovers at home only, Inverness CT away only.
Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Raith Rovers 7 · draws 1 · Inverness CT 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Inverness CT | 0-2 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-04-05 | Raith Rovers | 4-1 | Inverness CT | Challenge Cup |
| 2025-07-26 | Raith Rovers | 5-1 | Inverness CT | League Cup |
| 2024-07-06 | Raith Rovers | 1-0 | Inverness CT | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-04-19 | Inverness CT | 0-1 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2024-01-27 | Raith Rovers | 2-3 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2023-12-02 | Inverness CT | 1-2 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2023-09-16 | Raith Rovers | 1-0 | Inverness CT | Championship |
| 2023-04-08 | Inverness CT | 2-0 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2023-01-28 | Raith Rovers | 2-2 | Inverness CT | Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Livingston vs Arbroath 2026-10-24
- Partick v Stenhousemuir — match page 2026-10-24
- Morton vs Ayr Utd — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Queen's Park v Dunfermline — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Raith Rovers, previous: Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers: odds and pick
- Inverness CT, previous: Inverness CT vs Arbroath: odds and pick