Livingston vs Arbroath preview
In the fixture between Livingston and Arbroath, the 1X2 probabilities show Livingston at 58%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 16%. Arbroath's chances sit at 14%, reflecting a significant gap in expected performance, as Livingston has an expected goals figure of 1.55 compared to Arbroath's 0.64.
However, Livingston's recent form includes two draws and a loss, while Arbroath has lost four of their last six matches. This inconsistency could lead to a different outcome than predicted. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 38%, indicating potential for a low-scoring match. With a confidence grade of C, results may vary based on current team dynamics.
Livingston vs Arbroath: model vs market
| Source | Livingston | Draw | Arbroath |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 28% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 28% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Livingston and Arbroath expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.19
- Attack rating (Livingston / Arbroath)
- 0.99 / 0.59
- Defence rating (Livingston / Arbroath)
- 1.03 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Livingston vs Arbroath score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Livingston goals. Columns: Arbroath goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Livingston vs Arbroath goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Livingston vs Arbroath
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Livingston | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Arbroath | 14% | 7.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.62 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Livingston or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Arbroath) | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Livingston win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Livingston and Arbroath recent form
Livingston
2W 2D 2L
Arbroath
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Livingston at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Arbroath away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Livingston at home only, Arbroath away only.
Livingston vs Arbroath head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Livingston 1 · draws 0 · Arbroath 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Arbroath | 1-0 | Livingston | Scotland Championship |
| 2021-07-05 | Livingston | 4-0 | Arbroath | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Partick v Stenhousemuir — match page 2026-10-24
- Morton vs Ayr Utd — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT 2026-10-24
- Queen's Park v Dunfermline — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Livingston, previous: Dunfermline v Livingston analysis
- Arbroath, previous: Inverness CT vs Arbroath: odds and pick