Dunfermline vs Livingston: model vs market
| Source | Dunfermline | Draw | Livingston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 32% | 25% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | +6% | +5% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Dunfermline below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Dunfermline vs Livingston odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dunfermline, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 2.70 | 2.48 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.27 | -0.08 |
| Livingston | 2.40 | 2.54 | +0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dunfermline and Livingston expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Dunfermline / Livingston)
- 0.84 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Dunfermline / Livingston)
- 0.72 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dunfermline vs Livingston score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dunfermline goals. Columns: Livingston goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dunfermline vs Livingston goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dunfermline vs Livingston
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Livingston | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dunfermline or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Livingston) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Dunfermline and Livingston recent form
Dunfermline
3W 2D 1L
Livingston
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dunfermline at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Livingston away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dunfermline at home only, Livingston away only.
Dunfermline vs Livingston head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dunfermline 4 · draws 2 · Livingston 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Livingston | 2-0 | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-04-02 | Dunfermline | 1-0 | Livingston | Championship |
| 2025-02-15 | Livingston | 0-0 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 2025-02-05 | Dunfermline | 0-2 | Livingston | Challenge Cup |
| 2024-10-29 | Dunfermline | 3-0 | Livingston | Championship |
| 2024-08-03 | Livingston | 2-0 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 2024-07-20 | Livingston | 1-0 | Dunfermline | League Cup |
| 2018-04-03 | Dunfermline | 1-0 | Livingston | Championship |
| 2018-02-10 | Livingston | 0-0 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 2017-10-21 | Dunfermline | 3-1 | Livingston | Championship |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ayr Utd vs Partick 2026-10-16
- Inverness CT v Arbroath — match page 2026-10-17
- Morton vs Queen's Park — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Dunfermline, previous: Ayr Utd – Dunfermline, 2026-10-10
- Dunfermline, next: Dunfermline vs Partick: odds and pick
- Livingston, previous: Livingston v Partick analysis
- Livingston, next: Livingston vs Arbroath prediction