Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Stenhousemuir | Draw | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 35% | 28% |
| Market | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Published | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Edge | +8% | +5% | -13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Raith Rovers, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 3.12 | 3.10 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.07 | -0.03 |
| Raith Rovers | 2.25 | 2.20 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stenhousemuir and Raith Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.85
- Attack rating (Stenhousemuir / Raith Rovers)
- 1.04 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Stenhousemuir / Raith Rovers)
- 0.64 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stenhousemuir goals. Columns: Raith Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Raith Rovers | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.66 |
| No | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stenhousemuir or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Raith Rovers) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win by 2+ | 10% | 10.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Stenhousemuir and Raith Rovers recent form
Stenhousemuir
5W 0D 1L
Raith Rovers
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stenhousemuir at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Raith Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stenhousemuir at home only, Raith Rovers away only.
Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Stenhousemuir 0 · draws 2 · Raith Rovers 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Raith Rovers | 1-1 | Stenhousemuir | Scotland Championship |
| 2019-04-06 | Stenhousemuir | 1-1 | Raith Rovers | League One |
| 2019-01-05 | Raith Rovers | 5-1 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2018-11-17 | Stenhousemuir | 1-3 | Raith Rovers | League One |
| 2018-08-11 | Raith Rovers | 2-0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ayr Utd vs Partick 2026-10-16
- Inverness CT v Arbroath — match page 2026-10-17
- Morton vs Queen's Park — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Dunfermline v Livingston — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Stenhousemuir, previous: Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir: odds and pick
- Stenhousemuir, next: Partick – Stenhousemuir, 2026-10-24
- Raith Rovers, previous: Raith Rovers vs Queen's Park prediction
- Raith Rovers, next: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT: odds and pick