Morton vs Queen's Park: model vs market
| Source | Morton | Draw | Queen's Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Published | 38% | 30% | 33% |
| Edge | +1% | +3% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Morton vs Queen's Park odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Morton, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 2.50 | 2.42 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Queen's Park | 2.50 | 2.67 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Morton and Queen's Park expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.16
- Attack rating (Morton / Queen's Park)
- 0.75 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Morton / Queen's Park)
- 1.44 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Morton vs Queen's Park score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Morton goals. Columns: Queen's Park goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Morton vs Queen's Park goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Morton vs Queen's Park
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 38% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Queen's Park | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Morton or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Queen's Park) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Morton win by 2+ | 17% | 5.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Morton and Queen's Park recent form
Morton
1W 0D 5L
Queen's Park
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Morton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Queen's Park away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Morton at home only, Queen's Park away only.
Morton vs Queen's Park head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Morton 4 · draws 2 · Queen's Park 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Queen's Park | 2-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-04-18 | Morton | 0-0 | Queen's Park | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-02-21 | Queen's Park | 3-2 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-12-05 | Morton | 2-1 | Queen's Park | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-09-13 | Queen's Park | 0-0 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-03-22 | Morton | 2-1 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 2025-01-25 | Queen's Park | 1-2 | Morton | Championship |
| 2024-10-29 | Morton | 0-1 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 2024-09-14 | Queen's Park | 1-0 | Morton | Championship |
| 2024-03-30 | Morton | 2-0 | Queen's Park | Championship |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ayr Utd vs Partick 2026-10-16
- Inverness CT v Arbroath — match page 2026-10-17
- Dunfermline v Livingston — match page 2026-10-17
- Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Morton, previous: Arbroath v Morton analysis
- Morton, next: Morton v Ayr Utd analysis
- Queen's Park, previous: Queen's Park vs Inverness CT prediction
- Queen's Park, next: Queen's Park vs Dunfermline prediction