Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline preview
In the upcoming fixture, Stenhousemuir faces Dunfermline with a 1X2 probability of 27% for Stenhousemuir, 31% for a draw, and 41% for Dunfermline. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 15%. Stenhousemuir's expected goals sit at 0.78, while Dunfermline's is slightly lower at 0.71.
Stenhousemuir has struggled recently, recording 0 wins in their last 6 meetings against Dunfermline, who have won all 6. While the chance of Over 2.5 goals is just 19% and both teams to score stands at 29%, these factors could lead to a different outcome than expected. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline: model vs market
| Source | Stenhousemuir | Draw | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 39% | 28% |
| Market | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Published | 27% | 31% | 41% |
| Edge | +2% | +3% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dunfermline, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 2.75 | 3.60 | +0.85 |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.18 | +0.13 |
| Dunfermline | 2.45 | 2.00 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.49
- Attack rating (Stenhousemuir / Dunfermline)
- 0.91 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Stenhousemuir / Dunfermline)
- 0.85 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stenhousemuir goals. Columns: Dunfermline goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 24%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 27% | 3.67 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Dunfermline | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19% | 5.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.47 |
| No | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stenhousemuir or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Dunfermline) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win by 2+ | 9% | 11.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stenhousemuir and Dunfermline recent form
Stenhousemuir
3W 1D 2L
Dunfermline
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stenhousemuir at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Dunfermline away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stenhousemuir at home only, Dunfermline away only.
Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Stenhousemuir 0 · draws 0 · Dunfermline 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Dunfermline | 3-0 | Stenhousemuir | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2021-07-24 | Dunfermline | 4-1 | Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| 2016-03-05 | Dunfermline | 5-0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2016-02-06 | Stenhousemuir | 0-3 | Dunfermline | League One |
| 2015-12-19 | Dunfermline | 1-0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2015-09-19 | Stenhousemuir | 0-5 | Dunfermline | League One |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Queen's Park vs Inverness CT 2026-10-13
Before and after this match
- Stenhousemuir, previous: Partick – Stenhousemuir, 2026-10-24
- Stenhousemuir, next: Stenhousemuir – Livingston, 2026-10-30
- Dunfermline, previous: Queen's Park vs Dunfermline prediction
- Dunfermline, next: Dunfermline vs Inverness CT: odds and pick