Dunfermline vs Inverness CT preview
In the match between Dunfermline and Inverness CT, the 1X2 probabilities show Dunfermline at 39%, while both Inverness CT and a draw sit at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. This suggests a tight contest, but the low expected goals of 0.81 for Dunfermline and 0.83 for Inverness CT indicate that scoring may be limited.
While both teams to score has a 32% probability and Over 2.5 goals sits at just 23%, the match could deviate from these predictions. Recent form shows Dunfermline with a mix of results (W-D-D-D-W-W) and Inverness CT performing better lately (W-W-L-W-W-D). The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT: model vs market
| Source | Dunfermline | Draw | Inverness CT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 37% | 32% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 30% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dunfermline, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.26 | +0.00 |
| Inverness CT | 3.04 | 3.04 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dunfermline and Inverness CT expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.63
- Attack rating (Dunfermline / Inverness CT)
- 0.80 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Dunfermline / Inverness CT)
- 0.67 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dunfermline goals. Columns: Inverness CT goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dunfermline vs Inverness CT
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunfermline | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Inverness CT | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.08 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dunfermline or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Inverness CT) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunfermline win by 2+ | 10% | 9.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dunfermline and Inverness CT recent form
Dunfermline
3W 3D 0L
Inverness CT
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dunfermline at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inverness CT away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dunfermline at home only, Inverness CT away only.
Dunfermline vs Inverness CT head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Dunfermline 0 · draws 1 · Inverness CT 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Inverness CT | 0-0 | Dunfermline | Scotland Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Stenhousemuir vs Livingston 2026-10-30
- Partick vs Morton — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park 2026-10-31
- Arbroath vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Dunfermline, previous: Stenhousemuir – Dunfermline, 2026-10-27
- Inverness CT, previous: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT: odds and pick