Arbroath vs Raith Rovers preview
In the upcoming match between Arbroath and Raith Rovers, the 1X2 probabilities show Raith Rovers at 53% to win, compared to Arbroath's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with an 18% probability. Raith Rovers have a higher expected goals figure of 1.32, while Arbroath sits at 0.62.
However, the recent form indicates that Arbroath has struggled, with four losses in their last six matches. Raith Rovers have been more consistent, but they also have two draws in their recent games. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 31%, and both teams to score is at 35%. These factors could influence the outcome differently than predicted.
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Arbroath | Draw | Raith Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 31% | 53% |
| Market | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Published | 20% | 29% | 51% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Raith Rovers, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 4.18 | 4.18 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Raith Rovers | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arbroath and Raith Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.94
- Attack rating (Arbroath / Raith Rovers)
- 0.56 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Arbroath / Raith Rovers)
- 1.20 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arbroath goals. Columns: Raith Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arbroath vs Raith Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arbroath | 20% | 4.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Raith Rovers | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.85 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arbroath or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Raith Rovers) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Raith Rovers win by 2+ | 26% | 3.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arbroath and Raith Rovers recent form
Arbroath
1W 0D 5L
Raith Rovers
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arbroath at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Raith Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arbroath at home only, Raith Rovers away only.
Arbroath vs Raith Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arbroath 3 · draws 3 · Raith Rovers 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Raith Rovers | 4-0 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-04-18 | Arbroath | 2-1 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-01-10 | Raith Rovers | 2-3 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-11-22 | Arbroath | 0-0 | Raith Rovers | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-09-27 | Raith Rovers | 3-0 | Arbroath | Scotland Championship |
| 2024-05-03 | Raith Rovers | 5-0 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 2024-03-01 | Arbroath | 3-2 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2023-12-30 | Raith Rovers | 2-2 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 2023-12-13 | Arbroath | 1-2 | Raith Rovers | Championship |
| 2023-04-15 | Raith Rovers | 1-1 | Arbroath | Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Stenhousemuir vs Livingston 2026-10-30
- Partick vs Morton — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park 2026-10-31
- Dunfermline v Inverness CT — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Arbroath, previous: Livingston vs Arbroath prediction
- Raith Rovers, previous: Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT: odds and pick