Stenhousemuir vs Livingston preview
In the Scotland Championship fixture between Stenhousemuir and Livingston, the 1X2 probabilities show Stenhousemuir at 34%, draw at 29%, and Livingston at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 8% chance. Stenhousemuir has a recent form of D-L-W-W-W-W, while Livingston has D-L-L-W-D-W.
The expected goals indicate Stenhousemuir at 1.30 and Livingston at 0.71. With both teams to score at 38% and Over 2.5 goals at 33%, the match could be low-scoring. However, if Stenhousemuir can convert their chances better than expected, they could challenge Livingston's recent dominance in their head-to-head record, where Livingston has 6 wins out of the last 8 encounters.
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston: model vs market
| Source | Stenhousemuir | Draw | Livingston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 34% | 27% |
| Market | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | +4% | +2% | -6% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Livingston, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 3.19 | 4.20 | +1.01 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.50 | +0.30 |
| Livingston | 2.17 | 1.74 | -0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stenhousemuir and Livingston expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.94
- Attack rating (Stenhousemuir / Livingston)
- 0.91 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Stenhousemuir / Livingston)
- 0.85 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stenhousemuir goals. Columns: Livingston goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stenhousemuir vs Livingston
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stenhousemuir | 26% | 3.86 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Livingston | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.54 |
| No | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stenhousemuir or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Livingston) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Livingston win by 2+ | 10% | 10.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stenhousemuir and Livingston recent form
Stenhousemuir
3W 1D 2L
Livingston
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stenhousemuir at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Livingston away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stenhousemuir at home only, Livingston away only.
Stenhousemuir vs Livingston head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Stenhousemuir 1 · draws 1 · Livingston 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Livingston | 0-1 | Stenhousemuir | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-07-25 | Stenhousemuir | 0-0 | Livingston | League Cup |
| 2023-01-21 | Stenhousemuir | 1-3 | Livingston | FA Cup |
| 2020-11-10 | Stenhousemuir | 0-4 | Livingston | League Cup |
| 2017-04-15 | Stenhousemuir | 0-1 | Livingston | League One |
| 2017-03-21 | Livingston | 1-0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 2016-12-13 | Stenhousemuir | 0-4 | Livingston | League One |
| 2016-08-20 | Livingston | 4-1 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Partick vs Morton — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park 2026-10-31
- Dunfermline v Inverness CT — match page 2026-10-31
- Arbroath vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Stenhousemuir, previous: Stenhousemuir – Dunfermline, 2026-10-27
- Livingston, previous: Livingston vs Arbroath prediction