Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park preview
Ayr Utd has a 52% chance to win against Queen's Park, who has only a 16% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Ayr Utd, with a 19% probability. Ayr Utd's expected goals stand at 1.26, while Queen's Park's is significantly lower at 0.57.
However, recent form shows Ayr Utd with two losses in their last three matches, while Queen's Park has lost six in a row. Despite Ayr Utd's stronger position, both teams to score has a 32% chance and Over 2.5 goals is at 28%, indicating potential for surprises. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty around the outcome.
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park: model vs market
| Source | Ayr Utd | Draw | Queen's Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Published | 51% | 28% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ayr Utd, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr Utd | 1.79 | 1.79 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.43 | 3.43 | +0.00 |
| Queen's Park | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.82
- Attack rating (Ayr Utd / Queen's Park)
- 0.80 / 0.56
- Defence rating (Ayr Utd / Queen's Park)
- 0.97 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ayr Utd goals. Columns: Queen's Park goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ayr Utd | 51% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Queen's Park | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.11 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ayr Utd or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Queen's Park) | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win by 2+ | 25% | 4.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ayr Utd and Queen's Park recent form
Ayr Utd
2W 1D 3L
Queen's Park
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ayr Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Queen's Park away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ayr Utd at home only, Queen's Park away only.
Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ayr Utd 3 · draws 5 · Queen's Park 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Queen's Park | 0-2 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-03-14 | Queen's Park | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-03-10 | Ayr Utd | 1-2 | Queen's Park | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-10-25 | Queen's Park | 0-0 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-08-30 | Ayr Utd | 1-1 | Queen's Park | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-04-26 | Ayr Utd | 2-2 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 2025-03-04 | Queen's Park | 2-3 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-11-16 | Ayr Utd | 3-2 | Queen's Park | Championship |
| 2024-09-21 | Queen's Park | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-03-23 | Ayr Utd | 1-2 | Queen's Park | Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Stenhousemuir vs Livingston 2026-10-30
- Partick vs Morton — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Dunfermline v Inverness CT — match page 2026-10-31
- Arbroath vs Raith Rovers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Ayr Utd, previous: Morton v Ayr Utd analysis
- Queen's Park, previous: Queen's Park vs Dunfermline prediction