Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda preview
In the Serbia Super Liga fixture, Macva has a 16% chance of winning, while FK Crvena Zvezda stands at 59%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 12% probability. Macva's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while FK Crvena Zvezda has secured 4 wins in their last 6 games.
With expected goals of 0.82 for Macva and 1.79 for FK Crvena Zvezda, the match could see fewer goals than anticipated. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are both at 48%, indicating uncertainty in scoring. A draw is also possible, with a 25% chance, which could disrupt the expected outcome.
Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda: model vs market
| Source | Macva | Draw | FK Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Macva and FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Macva / FK Crvena Zvezda)
- 0.67 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Macva / FK Crvena Zvezda)
- 1.06 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Macva goals. Columns: FK Crvena Zvezda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macva | 16% | 6.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Macva or draw) | 41% | 2.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FK Crvena Zvezda) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Crvena Zvezda win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Macva and FK Crvena Zvezda recent form
Macva
0W 3D 3L
FK Crvena Zvezda
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Macva at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
FK Crvena Zvezda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.17
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 6
- They have won 11 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Macva at home only, FK Crvena Zvezda away only.
Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Macva 0 · draws 0 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 5-0 | Macva | Serbia Super Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Macva, previous: Zemun v Macva analysis
- FK Crvena Zvezda, previous: OFK Beograd – FK Crvena Zvezda, 2026-10-25
- FK Crvena Zvezda, next: FK Crvena Zvezda – Inter Club d'Escaldes, 2026-11-05