Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica preview
In the match between Mladost Lucani and Radnik Surdulica, the 1X2 probabilities show Mladost Lucani at 36%, a draw at 29%, and Radnik Surdulica at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a fairly balanced offensive capability.
Mladost Lucani's expected goals are 1.29, while Radnik Surdulica's are 1.27, suggesting a closely contested match. Recent form shows Mladost with 2 wins in their last 5 games, while Radnik has only 1 win in their last 6. A low-scoring game could occur if defenses hold strong, affecting the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, currently at 47%.
Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica: model vs market
| Source | Mladost Lucani | Draw | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mladost Lucani and Radnik Surdulica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Mladost Lucani / Radnik Surdulica)
- 0.82 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Mladost Lucani / Radnik Surdulica)
- 1.15 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mladost Lucani goals. Columns: Radnik Surdulica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mladost Lucani | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Radnik Surdulica | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mladost Lucani or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Radnik Surdulica) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mladost Lucani win by 2+ | 16% | 6.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Mladost Lucani and Radnik Surdulica recent form
Mladost Lucani
2W 2D 2L
Radnik Surdulica
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mladost Lucani at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Radnik Surdulica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mladost Lucani at home only, Radnik Surdulica away only.
Mladost Lucani vs Radnik Surdulica head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Mladost Lucani 1 · draws 2 · Radnik Surdulica 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Radnik Surdulica | 1-1 | Mladost Lucani | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-12-08 | Radnik Surdulica | 0-0 | Mladost Lucani | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-08-02 | Mladost Lucani | 1-0 | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Mladost Lucani, previous: Mladost Lucani vs Vojvodina: odds and pick
- Radnik Surdulica, previous: Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica: odds and pick