Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani preview
In the Serbia Super Liga fixture between Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani, the 1X2 probabilities show Novi Pazar at 47%, while Mladost Lucani stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 15% chance of occurring. The expected goals suggest Novi Pazar might score 1.29, compared to Mladost Lucani's 0.77.
However, both teams have shown inconsistency in recent form. Novi Pazar's last five matches include 2 losses and 2 draws, while Mladost Lucani has 3 draws and 2 losses in their last five games. This could lead to a different outcome than predicted, especially considering the head-to-head record, which features 4 draws in their last 10 encounters.
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani: model vs market
| Source | Novi Pazar | Draw | Mladost Lucani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 50% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.77.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Novi Pazar, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novi Pazar | 1.95 | 1.78 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
| Mladost Lucani | 3.60 | 4.00 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Novi Pazar / Mladost Lucani)
- 0.78 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Novi Pazar / Mladost Lucani)
- 0.95 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Novi Pazar goals. Columns: Mladost Lucani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novi Pazar | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Mladost Lucani | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.50 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Novi Pazar or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Mladost Lucani) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Novi Pazar win by 2+ | 23% | 4.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani recent form
Novi Pazar
1W 2D 3L
Mladost Lucani
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Novi Pazar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mladost Lucani away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Novi Pazar at home only, Mladost Lucani away only.
Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Novi Pazar 3 · draws 4 · Mladost Lucani 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Mladost Lucani | 0-0 | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2026-06-28 | Mladost Lucani | 3-1 | Novi Pazar | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-03-09 | Mladost Lucani | 0-2 | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-10-04 | Novi Pazar | 1-0 | Mladost Lucani | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-07-08 | Novi Pazar | 1-1 | Mladost Lucani | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-04-28 | Mladost Lucani | 1-1 | Novi Pazar | Super Liga |
| 2024-12-20 | Mladost Lucani | 1-3 | Novi Pazar | Super Liga |
| 2024-08-17 | Novi Pazar | 0-1 | Mladost Lucani | Super Liga |
| 2024-03-03 | Novi Pazar | 0-0 | Mladost Lucani | Super Liga |
| 2023-09-23 | Mladost Lucani | 2-0 | Novi Pazar | Super Liga |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cukaricki v Radnicki NIS — match page 2026-11-07
- Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923 2026-11-07
- Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- FK Partizan vs Macva 2026-11-08
- Vojvodina v FK Crvena Zvezda — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Novi Pazar, previous: Radnicki 1923 v Novi Pazar analysis
- Mladost Lucani, previous: Mladost Lucani v Radnik Surdulica analysis