Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd preview
In the Serbia Super Liga fixture between Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd, the 1X2 probabilities show Radnik Surdulica at 48%, while OFK Beograd sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Radnik Surdulica has an expected goals figure of 1.81, compared to OFK Beograd's 0.83, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, Radnik Surdulica's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while OFK Beograd has lost 5 of their last 6 games. This could affect the outcome, as both teams to score stands at 48% and Over 2.5 goals at 49%, suggesting potential for surprises despite the statistical edge for Radnik Surdulica.
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd: model vs market
| Source | Radnik Surdulica | Draw | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Radnik Surdulica below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Radnik Surdulica, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Surdulica | 2.10 | 2.18 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.27 | -0.03 |
| OFK Beograd | 3.30 | 3.00 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Radnik Surdulica / OFK Beograd)
- 0.98 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Radnik Surdulica / OFK Beograd)
- 0.95 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Radnik Surdulica goals. Columns: OFK Beograd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radnik Surdulica | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| OFK Beograd | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Radnik Surdulica or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or OFK Beograd) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Radnik Surdulica win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd recent form
Radnik Surdulica
2W 2D 2L
OFK Beograd
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Radnik Surdulica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-0
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
OFK Beograd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Radnik Surdulica at home only, OFK Beograd away only.
Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Radnik Surdulica 1 · draws 3 · OFK Beograd 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | OFK Beograd | 0-0 | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2026-04-26 | OFK Beograd | 1-1 | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2026-04-09 | OFK Beograd | 0-0 | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga |
| 2025-11-08 | Radnik Surdulica | 1-0 | OFK Beograd | Serbia Super Liga |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Cukaricki v Radnicki NIS — match page 2026-11-07
- Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923 2026-11-07
- Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani 2026-11-08
- FK Partizan vs Macva 2026-11-08
- Vojvodina v FK Crvena Zvezda — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Radnik Surdulica, previous: Mladost Lucani v Radnik Surdulica analysis
- OFK Beograd, previous: OFK Beograd vs Vojvodina prediction