Updated

K League 1 · Championship Group - 35

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United

· Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Daejeon· Referee Choi Cheol-jun

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Daejeon Citizen to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Daejeon CitizenDrawIncheon United

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDaejeon CitizenDrawIncheon United
Model38%28%34%
Market46%27%26%
Published44%27%28%
Edge-2%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Daejeon Citizen, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.03Now 2.01 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Daejeon Citizen2.032.01-0.02
Draw3.403.42+0.02
Incheon United3.503.55+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Daejeon Citizen
1.33Incheon United
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (Daejeon Citizen / Incheon United)
1.45 / 1.09
Defence rating (Daejeon Citizen / Incheon United)
1.01 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 7.4% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1% 1 7.9% 13.3% 8.1% 3.6% 1.6% 2 6.4% 8.5% 5.7% 2.5% 1.1% 3 3.0% 4.0% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Daejeon Citizen goals. Columns: Incheon United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Daejeon Citizen44%2.26
Draw27%3.64
Incheon United28%3.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.94
Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Daejeon Citizen or draw)72%1.40
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Incheon United)56%1.79
Handicap -1Daejeon Citizen win by 2+18%5.52
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United recent form

Daejeon Citizen 3W 3D 0L
Incheon United 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Daejeon Citizen at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-6-5
Win rate
35%
Goals for / match
1.41
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
3 of 17
  • They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Incheon United away

Record (W-D-L)
6-6-5
Win rate
35%
Goals for / match
1.24
Goals against / match
1.06
Clean sheets
6 of 17
  • They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Daejeon Citizen at home only, Incheon United away only.

Expected lineups

Daejeon Citizen lineup · 4-5-1

  1. 1 Lee Chang-Geun
  2. 16 Lee Myung-Jae
  3. 98 A. Krivotsyuk
  4. 4 Jo Seong-Kwon
  5. 33 Kim Moon-Hwan
  6. 17 G. Ludwigson
  7. 6 Kang Yun-Sung
  8. 19 Seo Jin-Su
  9. 30 Kim Bong-Soo
  10. 11 Um Won-Sang
  11. 10 Joo Min-Kyu

Bench: Kim Min-Duk, Diogo de Oliveira, Kim Jin-Ya, Kim Jun-Bum, Lee Hyun-Sik, Jeong Jae-Hee, Kim Min-Soo, Lee Soon-Min, João Victor

Incheon United lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 21 Lee Tae-Hui
  2. 32 Lee Ju-Yong
  3. 20 Park Kyung-Sub
  4. 4 Kim Geon-Hui
  5. 3 Lee Sang-Gi
  6. 77 Park Seung-Ho
  7. 5 Lee Myung-Joo
  8. 15 Seo Jae-Min
  9. 17 Kim Seong-Min
  10. 72 Lee Chung-Yong
  11. 99 M. Ferrier

Bench: Kim Dong-Heon, S. Mugoša, Lee Dong-Ryul, Gerso, Choi Seung-Gu, Jeong Chi-In, Lee Min-Hyeok, Kim Young-Whan

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Daejeon Citizen 3 · draws 3 · Incheon United 4.

Daejeon CitizenDrawsIncheon United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-20Incheon United1-1Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2026-05-05Daejeon Citizen0-0Incheon UnitedK League 1
2026-03-18Incheon United1-3Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2024-11-10Incheon United1-2Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2024-08-17Daejeon Citizen2-1Incheon UnitedK League 1
2024-05-18Daejeon Citizen0-1Incheon UnitedK League 1
2024-03-30Incheon United2-0Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2023-07-16Incheon United2-0Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2023-06-04Daejeon Citizen1-3Incheon UnitedK League 1
2023-03-04Incheon United3-3Daejeon CitizenK League 1

Other Championship Group - 35 fixtures

Before and after this match