FC Seoul vs Incheon United preview
In the K League 1 fixture between FC Seoul and Incheon United, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Seoul at 40%, Incheon United at 32%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 51%.
FC Seoul's expected goals are 1.45, compared to Incheon United's 1.27. Recent form shows FC Seoul with two draws and three losses in their last five matches, while Incheon United has three draws and two losses. The head-to-head record favors FC Seoul with 6 wins in the last 10 encounters. However, FC Seoul's inconsistent form could lead to a different outcome.
FC Seoul vs Incheon United: model vs market
| Source | FC Seoul | Draw | Incheon United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Seoul and Incheon United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (FC Seoul / Incheon United)
- 1.36 / 1.13
- Defence rating (FC Seoul / Incheon United)
- 0.92 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Seoul vs Incheon United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Seoul goals. Columns: Incheon United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Seoul vs Incheon United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Seoul vs Incheon United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Seoul | 40% | 2.49 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Incheon United | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Seoul or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Incheon United) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Seoul win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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FC Seoul and Incheon United recent form
FC Seoul
2W 2D 2L
Incheon United
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Seoul at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 20 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Incheon United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Seoul at home only, Incheon United away only.
FC Seoul vs Incheon United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Seoul 6 · draws 2 · Incheon United 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | FC Seoul | 1-0 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2026-07-05 | FC Seoul | 1-0 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Incheon United | 1-2 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2024-07-27 | Incheon United | 0-1 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2024-05-11 | Incheon United | 1-2 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2024-03-10 | FC Seoul | 0-0 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2023-07-22 | FC Seoul | 0-1 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2023-06-07 | Incheon United | 1-1 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2023-02-25 | FC Seoul | 2-1 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2022-08-27 | Incheon United | 2-0 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
Other Championship Group - 34 fixtures
- Jeonbuk Motors v Daejeon Citizen — match page 2026-10-31
- Ulsan Hyundai FC v Gangwon FC — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- FC Seoul, previous: FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC: odds and pick
- Incheon United, previous: Incheon United v Jeju United FC analysis