FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC preview
FC Seoul hosts Gangwon FC with a 50% chance of winning, while Gangwon FC has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. FC Seoul has an expected goals figure of 1.56 compared to Gangwon FC's 0.96, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
However, the match could see different outcomes if Gangwon FC improves their recent form, which includes 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Both teams to score stands at 50%, suggesting that while FC Seoul may dominate, Gangwon FC could still find the net. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC: model vs market
| Source | FC Seoul | Draw | Gangwon FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Seoul and Gangwon FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (FC Seoul / Gangwon FC)
- 1.46 / 0.94
- Defence rating (FC Seoul / Gangwon FC)
- 0.93 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Seoul goals. Columns: Gangwon FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Seoul | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Gangwon FC | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Seoul or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Gangwon FC) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Seoul win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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FC Seoul and Gangwon FC recent form
FC Seoul
3W 1D 2L
Gangwon FC
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Seoul at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-3
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 20 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gangwon FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Seoul at home only, Gangwon FC away only.
FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Seoul 3 · draws 2 · Gangwon FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | FC Seoul | 0-0 | Gangwon FC | K League 1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gangwon FC | 1-2 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2025-10-26 | FC Seoul | 4-2 | Gangwon FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Gangwon FC | 3-2 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2025-06-17 | FC Seoul | 1-1 | Gangwon FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Gangwon FC | 0-1 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
- FC Seoul, previous: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC analysis
- Gangwon FC, previous: Gangwon FC v Incheon United analysis