Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen preview
In the K League 1 match between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen, the 1X2 probabilities show Daejeon Citizen at 45%, while Gimcheon Sangmu FC is at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with a 10% chance. The expected goals suggest Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score 1.13, compared to Daejeon Citizen’s 1.53.
Both teams to score has a probability of 54%, and there is a 49% chance of Over 2.5 goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent form includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Daejeon Citizen has 3 wins in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen: model vs market
| Source | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Draw | Daejeon Citizen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Gimcheon Sangmu FC / Daejeon Citizen)
- 0.90 / 1.60
- Defence rating (Gimcheon Sangmu FC / Daejeon Citizen)
- 0.91 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimcheon Sangmu FC goals. Columns: Daejeon Citizen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 28% | 3.63 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Daejeon Citizen | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Daejeon Citizen) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Daejeon Citizen win by 2+ | 26% | 3.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen recent form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1W 4D 1L
Daejeon Citizen
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-10-4
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Daejeon Citizen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home only, Daejeon Citizen away only.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 · draws 2 · Daejeon Citizen 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 3-2 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Daejeon Citizen | 1-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-3 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Daejeon Citizen | 2-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Daejeon Citizen | 0-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-2 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC 2026-10-24
- FC Anyang v Jeonbuk Motors — match page 2026-10-24
- Incheon United vs Jeju United FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC 2026-10-24
- Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC, previous: FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC analysis
- Daejeon Citizen, previous: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC prediction