Updated

K League 1 · Matchday 32

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC

· Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Daejeon· Referee Kim Woo-sung

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Daejeon Citizen to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Daejeon CitizenDrawGwangju FC

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDaejeon CitizenDrawGwangju FC
Model64%18%18%
Market67%20%13%
Published66%19%14%
Edge-3%-2%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.44.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Daejeon Citizen, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.37Now 1.39 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Daejeon Citizen1.371.39+0.02
Draw4.954.70-0.25
Gwangju FC7.187.00-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.75Daejeon Citizen
1.44Gwangju FC
Total expected goals
4.19
Attack rating (Daejeon Citizen / Gwangju FC)
1.50 / 1.11
Defence rating (Daejeon Citizen / Gwangju FC)
1.07 / 1.42

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 1 3.6% 6.6% 4.3% 2.1% 1.0% 2 5.7% 8.2% 6.0% 2.9% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.5% 5.5% 2.6% 1.3% 4+ 7.0% 10.1% 7.3% 3.5% 1.7%

Rows: Daejeon Citizen goals. Columns: Gwangju FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 79%
Over 3.5 60%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Daejeon Citizen66%1.51
Draw19%5.17
Gwangju FC14%6.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579%1.27
Under 2.521%4.74
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.59
Double chance1X (Daejeon Citizen or draw)86%1.17
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Gwangju FC)34%2.96
Handicap -1Daejeon Citizen win by 2+45%2.23
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC recent form

Daejeon Citizen 3W 2D 1L
Gwangju FC 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Daejeon Citizen at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-6-5
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gwangju FC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-7-7
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.64
Goals against / match
2.29
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 2 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Daejeon Citizen at home only, Gwangju FC away only.

Expected lineups

Daejeon Citizen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Lee Chang-Geun
  2. 16 Lee Myung-Jae
  3. 98 A. Krivotsyuk
  4. 4 Jo Seong-Kwon
  5. 33 Kim Moon-Hwan
  6. 6 Kang Yun-Sung
  7. 30 Kim Bong-Soo
  8. 17 G. Ludwigson
  9. 7 M. Ishida
  10. 11 Um Won-Sang
  11. 10 Joo Min-Kyu

Bench: Diogo de Oliveira, Kim Jin-Ya, Kim Jun-Bum, Seo Jin-Su, Lee Hyun-Sik, Lee Jung-Taek, Jeong Jae-Hee, Kim Min-Soo, Park Byung-chan

Gwangju FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 23 Kim Dong-Hwa
  2. 3 Lee Min-Gi
  3. 39 Min Sang-Gi
  4. 4 T. van Grunsven
  5. 22 Kwon Sung-Yun
  6. 9 Ha Seung-Un
  7. 14 Yu Je-Ho
  8. 10 Choi Kyoung-Rok
  9. 40 Shin Chang-Moo
  10. 18 J. Iredale
  11. 50 A. Ba Loua

Bench: Kim Kyeong-Min, Ahn Young-Kyu, Ju Se-Jong, João Pedro, Kim Jong-Suk, Park Won-Jae, Lee Yong-Jick, Kim Woo-jin, Moon Min-seo

Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Daejeon Citizen 4 · draws 3 · Gwangju FC 3.

Daejeon CitizenDrawsGwangju FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-02Daejeon Citizen2-0Gwangju FCK League 1
2026-05-02Gwangju FC0-5Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2025-08-17Gwangju FC2-0Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2025-06-22Gwangju FC2-2Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2025-03-29Daejeon Citizen1-1Gwangju FCK League 1
2024-11-02Gwangju FC0-0Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2024-09-01Daejeon Citizen2-0Gwangju FCK League 1
2024-06-22Daejeon Citizen2-1Gwangju FCK League 1
2024-05-06Gwangju FC2-1Daejeon CitizenK League 1
2023-08-04Gwangju FC3-0Daejeon CitizenK League 1

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match