Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors preview
Daejeon Citizen faces Jeonbuk Motors with a model 1X2 probability of 43% for a Daejeon win, compared to 31% for Jeonbuk. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.79 for Daejeon and 1.31 for Jeonbuk. The market suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 62%.
Daejeon’s recent form shows two wins in their last three matches, while Jeonbuk has drawn three of their last five. The head-to-head record favors Jeonbuk with five wins out of the last ten encounters, alongside four draws. This context could influence the match outcome, potentially challenging the predictions based on current form and expected goals.
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors: model vs market
| Source | Daejeon Citizen | Draw | Jeonbuk Motors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | +6% | -1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Daejeon Citizen below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Daejeon Citizen, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon Citizen | 2.22 | 2.20 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.50 | -0.06 |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 2.95 | 2.90 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Daejeon Citizen / Jeonbuk Motors)
- 1.51 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Daejeon Citizen / Jeonbuk Motors)
- 1.11 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Daejeon Citizen goals. Columns: Jeonbuk Motors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Daejeon Citizen | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Daejeon Citizen or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Jeonbuk Motors) | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Daejeon Citizen win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors recent form
Daejeon Citizen
3W 2D 1L
Jeonbuk Motors
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Daejeon Citizen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jeonbuk Motors away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-3
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Daejeon Citizen at home only, Jeonbuk Motors away only.
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Daejeon Citizen 1 · draws 4 · Jeonbuk Motors 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Jeonbuk Motors | 0-0 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Daejeon Citizen | 0-1 | Jeonbuk Motors | K League 1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Jeonbuk Motors | 3-1 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Jeonbuk Motors | 1-0 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| 2025-05-14 | Daejeon Citizen | 2-3 | Jeonbuk Motors | FA Cup |
| 2025-05-06 | Jeonbuk Motors | 1-1 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Daejeon Citizen | 0-2 | Jeonbuk Motors | K League 1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Jeonbuk Motors | 0-2 | Daejeon Citizen | K League 1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Daejeon Citizen | 0-0 | Jeonbuk Motors | K League 1 |
| 2024-07-07 | Daejeon Citizen | 2-2 | Jeonbuk Motors | K League 1 |
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