Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC: model vs market
| Source | Gwangju FC | Draw | Ulsan Hyundai FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Market | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ulsan Hyundai FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 4.47 | 4.40 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.00 | -0.05 |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 1.67 | 1.67 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Gwangju FC / Ulsan Hyundai FC)
- 0.89 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Gwangju FC / Ulsan Hyundai FC)
- 1.32 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gwangju FC goals. Columns: Ulsan Hyundai FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gwangju FC | 21% | 4.68 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gwangju FC or draw) | 45% | 2.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC win by 2+ | 30% | 3.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC recent form
Gwangju FC
0W 4D 2L
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gwangju FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-10
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.94
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 1 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gwangju FC at home only, Ulsan Hyundai FC away only.
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gwangju FC 1 · draws 2 · Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | K League 1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 5-1 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Gwangju FC | 2-0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 2-0 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-05-28 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-05-02 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 3-0 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
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