Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers preview
Incheon United hosts Pohang Steelers with a 41% chance of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% probability. Incheon United has scored an expected 1.13 goals, while Pohang Steelers is at 0.92.
However, the recent form shows Incheon with two draws and a loss in their last five matches, while Pohang has won two of their last five. The market suggests a 34% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance for both teams to score. In head-to-head matches, Pohang Steelers has won five out of the last ten encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers: model vs market
| Source | Incheon United | Draw | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Published | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Edge | -2% | +3% | -1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Incheon United, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United | 2.21 | 2.24 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Pohang Steelers | 3.33 | 3.25 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Incheon United and Pohang Steelers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Incheon United / Pohang Steelers)
- 0.83 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Incheon United / Pohang Steelers)
- 0.88 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Incheon United goals. Columns: Pohang Steelers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Incheon United | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Pohang Steelers | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Incheon United or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Pohang Steelers) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Incheon United win by 2+ | 17% | 5.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Incheon United and Pohang Steelers recent form
Incheon United
1W 3D 2L
Pohang Steelers
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Incheon United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pohang Steelers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-6
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.35
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Incheon United at home only, Pohang Steelers away only.
Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Incheon United 1 · draws 4 · Pohang Steelers 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Incheon United | 0-1 | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Pohang Steelers | 1-1 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2024-09-27 | Pohang Steelers | 1-0 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2024-06-23 | Incheon United | 1-3 | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Pohang Steelers | 0-0 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2023-10-20 | Pohang Steelers | 1-1 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Incheon United | 0-2 | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 |
| 2023-06-25 | Incheon United | 0-1 | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 |
| 2023-04-30 | Pohang Steelers | 0-2 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Incheon United | 1-1 | Pohang Steelers | K League 1 |
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