FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC preview
FC Seoul faces Jeju United FC with a 53% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which suggests a close match. However, with both teams to score at 51%, there is a chance that Jeju could find the net, impacting the final outcome.
FC Seoul's recent form shows three wins in their last five matches, while Jeju United has also performed well, with four positive results. The expected goals indicate that FC Seoul is projected to score 1.33 goals, while Jeju United is at 1.12. This could lead to a scenario where the match ends with Over 2.5 goals, which stands at 44%. The confidence grade is C, reflecting mixed expectations based on the probabilities and market odds.
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC: model vs market
| Source | FC Seoul | Draw | Jeju United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | -18% | +6% | +12% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Seoul, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 1.61 | 1.61 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.98 | -0.02 |
| Jeju United FC | 5.05 | 5.00 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Seoul and Jeju United FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (FC Seoul / Jeju United FC)
- 1.42 / 1.11
- Defence rating (FC Seoul / Jeju United FC)
- 0.83 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Seoul goals. Columns: Jeju United FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Seoul | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Jeju United FC | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Seoul or draw) | 78% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Jeju United FC) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Seoul win by 2+ | 19% | 5.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Seoul and Jeju United FC recent form
FC Seoul
4W 0D 2L
Jeju United FC
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Seoul at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 0.77
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 13
- They have won 19 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jeju United FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Seoul at home only, Jeju United FC away only.
FC Seoul vs Jeju United FC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: FC Seoul 1 · draws 0 · Jeju United FC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Jeju United FC | 2-1 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Jeju United FC | 1-2 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2025-07-23 | Jeju United FC | 3-2 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
| 2025-05-31 | FC Seoul | 1-3 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Jeju United FC | 2-0 | FC Seoul | K League 1 |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors 2026-10-09
- Gangwon FC v Bucheon FC 1995 — match page 2026-10-09
- Incheon United vs Pohang Steelers — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC v FC Anyang — match page 2026-10-10
- Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC — team news & stats 2026-10-11