Updated

K League 1 · Matchday 32

Gangwon FC vs Incheon United

· Chuncheon Songam Sports Town, Chuncheon· Referee Tae-Hwan Seol

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Gangwon FC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Gangwon FCDrawIncheon United

Gangwon FC vs Incheon United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGangwon FCDrawIncheon United
Model32%34%35%
Market42%30%27%
Published40%31%29%
Edge-11%+4%+7%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gangwon FC vs Incheon United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gangwon FC, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.21Now 2.20 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gangwon FC2.212.20-0.01
Draw3.103.10+0.00
Incheon United3.403.40+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gangwon FC and Incheon United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Gangwon FC
1.02Incheon United
Total expected goals
1.98
Attack rating (Gangwon FC / Incheon United)
0.93 / 0.99
Defence rating (Gangwon FC / Incheon United)
0.84 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gangwon FC vs Incheon United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.1% 12.7% 7.1% 2.4% 0.8% 1 11.9% 14.9% 6.9% 2.3% 0.7% 2 6.4% 6.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4% 3 2.1% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Gangwon FC goals. Columns: Incheon United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gangwon FC vs Incheon United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gangwon FC vs Incheon United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gangwon FC40%2.51
Draw31%3.23
Incheon United29%3.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.13
Under 2.568%1.47
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.44
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Gangwon FC or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Incheon United)60%1.66
Handicap -1Gangwon FC win by 2+12%8.26
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gangwon FC and Incheon United recent form

Gangwon FC 2W 3D 1L
Incheon United 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gangwon FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-8-3
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.19
Goals against / match
0.81
Clean sheets
7 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Incheon United away

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
1.13
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gangwon FC at home only, Incheon United away only.

Expected lineups

Gangwon FC lineup

  1. 96 Choe Byeong-Chan
  2. 11 Goh Young-Jun
  3. 5 K. Mammar
  4. 7 Kim Dae-Won
  5. 13 Lee Gi-Hyuk
  6. 8 Lee Seung-Won
  7. 10 Mo Jae-Hyeon
  8. 1 Park Cheong-Hyo
  9. 4 Seo Min-Woo
  10. 47 Shin Min-Ha

Bench: Kim Dong-Hyun, Kim Gun-Hee, Eun-ho Lee, Park Sang-Hyeok, M. Tuci, Park Ho-Young, K. Sung, Lee You-Hyeon, Kang Joon-Hyuck

Incheon United lineup

  1. 2 Juan Fernández
  2. 1 Kim Dong-Heon
  3. 4 Kim Geon-Hui
  4. 39 Kim Myung-Sun
  5. 70 Leandro Ribeiro
  6. 72 Lee Chung-Yong
  7. 32 Lee Ju-Yong
  8. 5 Lee Myung-Joo
  9. 99 M. Ferrier
  10. 9 S. Mugoša

Bench: Lee Sang-Gi, Lee Dong-Ryul, Gerso, Choi Seung-Gu, Seo Jae-Min, Kim Seong-Min, Park Kyung-Sub, Lee Tae-Hui, Park Seung-Ho

Gangwon FC vs Incheon United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Gangwon FC 5 · draws 3 · Incheon United 2.

Gangwon FCDrawsIncheon United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Gangwon FC0-0Incheon UnitedK League 1
2026-05-02Incheon United0-1Gangwon FCK League 1
2024-10-06Incheon United1-3Gangwon FCK League 1
2024-06-30Incheon United0-1Gangwon FCK League 1
2024-04-21Gangwon FC4-1Incheon UnitedK League 1
2023-09-24Gangwon FC1-1Incheon UnitedK League 1
2023-07-02Incheon United1-0Gangwon FCK League 1
2023-04-16Gangwon FC0-2Incheon UnitedK League 1
2022-10-08Gangwon FC0-0Incheon UnitedK League 1
2022-09-02Incheon United0-1Gangwon FCK League 1

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match