Updated

K League 1 · Matchday 32

FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

· Seoul World Cup Stadium, Seoul· Referee Choi Cheol-jun

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was FC Seoul to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC SeoulDrawGimcheon Sangmu FC

FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC SeoulDrawGimcheon Sangmu FC
Model53%28%19%
Market61%22%17%
Published59%23%18%
Edge-8%+6%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Seoul, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.60Now 1.53 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Seoul1.601.53-0.07
Draw4.204.25+0.05
Gimcheon Sangmu FC5.005.42+0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54FC Seoul
0.84Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Total expected goals
2.38
Attack rating (FC Seoul / Gimcheon Sangmu FC)
1.43 / 0.82
Defence rating (FC Seoul / Gimcheon Sangmu FC)
0.84 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.5% 6.6% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1 13.1% 13.2% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 2 11.0% 9.2% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.7% 4.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 3.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: FC Seoul goals. Columns: Gimcheon Sangmu FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Seoul59%1.70
Draw23%4.26
Gimcheon Sangmu FC18%5.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.35
Under 2.557%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.85
Double chance1X (FC Seoul or draw)82%1.21
12 (either side)77%1.31
X2 (draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC)41%2.43
Handicap -1FC Seoul win by 2+28%3.54
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC recent form

FC Seoul 4W 0D 2L
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Seoul at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-2-3
Win rate
64%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
0.79
Clean sheets
8 of 14
  • They have won 20 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away

Record (W-D-L)
4-8-4
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Seoul at home only, Gimcheon Sangmu FC away only.

Expected lineups

FC Seoul lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 25 Gu Sung-Yun
  2. 22 Kim Jin-Su
  3. 37 Juan Antonio
  4. 5 Yazan Al Arab
  5. 16 Choi Jun
  6. 10 Anderson Oliveira
  7. 6 H. Babec
  8. 42 J. Son
  9. 7 Jeong Seung-Won
  10. 9 P. Klimala
  11. 27 Moon Seon-Min

Bench: Lee Sang-Min, Hyeon-Woo Jeong, Cho Young-Wook, Cheon Seong-Hoon, Lee Han-Do, Baek Jong-Beom, Hwang Do-Yoon, Park Soo-Il, Park Jang Han-Gyeol

Gimcheon Sangmu FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 51 Ahn Joon-Soo
  2. 33 Park Jin-Seong
  3. 5 Kim Min-Kyu
  4. 45 Byeon Jun-Soo
  5. 42 Hong Si-Hoo
  6. 48 Hong Yun-Sang
  7. 56 Lee Kang-Hyun
  8. 55 Park Tae-Jun
  9. 54 Yoon Jae-Seok
  10. 49 M. Kang
  11. 47 Lee Sang-Heon

Bench: Kim In-Gyun, Park Man-Ho, Park Min-Seo, Chung Ma-Ho, Kang Ju-Hyeok, Roh Kyung-Ho, Jeong Jae-Min, Lee Sang-Hyeok

FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Seoul 4 · draws 3 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.

FC SeoulDrawsGimcheon Sangmu FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-0FC SeoulK League 1
2026-05-02FC Seoul2-3Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
2025-11-22FC Seoul1-3Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
2025-08-17Gimcheon Sangmu FC6-2FC SeoulK League 1
2025-05-28Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-1FC SeoulK League 1
2025-03-03FC Seoul0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
2024-11-23Gimcheon Sangmu FC1-3FC SeoulK League 1
2024-07-21FC Seoul1-0Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
2024-05-28Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-0FC SeoulK League 1
2024-04-03FC Seoul5-1Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match