Updated

K League 1 · Matchday 32

Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC

· Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonju· Referee Song Min-Seok

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Jeonbuk Motors to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Jeonbuk MotorsDrawJeju United FC

Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJeonbuk MotorsDrawJeju United FC
Model28%31%42%
Market48%27%25%
Published43%28%29%
Edge-21%+4%+17%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Jeonbuk Motors, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.95Now 1.93 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Jeonbuk Motors1.951.93-0.02
Draw3.483.50+0.02
Jeju United FC3.703.72+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Jeonbuk Motors
1.29Jeju United FC
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (Jeonbuk Motors / Jeju United FC)
0.95 / 1.08
Defence rating (Jeonbuk Motors / Jeju United FC)
0.98 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.4% 11.7% 8.4% 3.6% 1.5% 1 8.8% 14.4% 8.4% 3.6% 1.5% 2 5.1% 6.6% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 3 1.7% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Jeonbuk Motors goals. Columns: Jeju United FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Jeonbuk Motors43%2.32
Draw28%3.62
Jeju United FC29%3.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.49
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.12
No53%1.89
Double chance1X (Jeonbuk Motors or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Jeju United FC)57%1.76
Handicap -1Jeonbuk Motors win by 2+11%9.36
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC recent form

Jeonbuk Motors 1W 3D 2L
Jeju United FC 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Jeonbuk Motors at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-3-5
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.53
Goals against / match
1.13
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Jeju United FC away

Record (W-D-L)
7-3-4
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
0.93
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Jeonbuk Motors at home only, Jeju United FC away only.

Expected lineups

Jeonbuk Motors lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 31 Song Bum-Keun
  2. 66 Choi Woo-Jin
  3. 2 Kim Young-Bin
  4. 5 Park Ji-Soo
  5. 77 Kim Tae-Hyun
  6. 13 Kang Sang-Yoon
  7. 16 João Gamboa
  8. 28 Lee Yeong-Jae
  9. 95 Italo
  10. 9 Tiago Orobó
  11. 7 Lee Dong-Jun

Bench: Lee Ju-Hyun, Cho Wi-Je, Maeng Seong-Ung, Lee Seung-Woo, Kim Seung-Sub, Lee Sang-Myung, Dodozinho, Kim Jin-Gyu, Bruno Mota

Jeju United FC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Kim Dong-Jun
  2. 40 Kim Ryun-Seong
  3. 3 J. Célestine
  4. 2 Tobias Figueiredo
  5. 17 Yu In-Soo
  6. 7 Chang-Jun Park
  7. 8 Lee Chang-Min
  8. 6 Gi-min Kwon
  9. 94 Emerson Negueba
  10. 33 Park Su-Bin
  11. 10 Lee Kun-Hee

Bench: Chung Woon, Kim Sin-Jin, E. Çinari, Rim Chang-Woo, Choi Byung-Wook, Kim Jae-Woo, Min-jae Park, Dong-hwi Kang, Heo Ja-Ung

Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Jeonbuk Motors 3 · draws 4 · Jeju United FC 3.

Jeonbuk MotorsDrawsJeju United FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Jeonbuk Motors1-3Jeju United FCK League 1
2026-05-02Jeju United FC0-2Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
2025-10-03Jeju United FC1-1Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
2025-05-23Jeju United FC0-0Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
2025-04-13Jeonbuk Motors1-1Jeju United FCK League 1
2024-10-27Jeju United FC1-0Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
2024-09-28Jeonbuk Motors2-1Jeju United FCK League 1
2024-07-10Jeonbuk Motors2-1Jeju United FCK League 1
2024-04-03Jeju United FC2-0Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
2023-09-03Jeju United FC0-0Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match