Incheon United vs Jeju United FC preview
Incheon United faces Jeju United FC with 1X2 probabilities of 34% for Incheon, 33% for a draw, and 34% for Jeju. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Both teams to score stands at 44%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 35%.
Incheon United's recent form shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while Jeju United FC has 4 wins and 1 draw in the same period. The expected goals for both teams are equal at 1.05. A draw or a high-scoring game could challenge the predictions based on the current statistics.
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC: model vs market
| Source | Incheon United | Draw | Jeju United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Incheon United / Jeju United FC)
- 0.99 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Incheon United / Jeju United FC)
- 0.80 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Incheon United goals. Columns: Jeju United FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Incheon United | 39% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Jeju United FC | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Incheon United or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Jeju United FC) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Incheon United win by 2+ | 18% | 5.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Incheon United and Jeju United FC recent form
Incheon United
2W 3D 1L
Jeju United FC
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Incheon United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jeju United FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Incheon United at home only, Jeju United FC away only.
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Incheon United 1 · draws 1 · Jeju United FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Jeju United FC | 3-3 | Incheon United | K League 1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Incheon United | 1-0 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC 2026-10-24
- FC Anyang v Jeonbuk Motors — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC 2026-10-24
- Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers — match page 2026-10-24
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Incheon United, previous: Gangwon FC v Incheon United analysis
- Jeju United FC, previous: Jeonbuk Motors – Jeju United FC, 2026-10-18