Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC preview
In the K League 1 fixture between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gwangju FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Gwangju FC at 42%, while Bucheon FC 1995 sits at 33%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.58 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.80 for Gwangju FC.
Both teams to score stands at 67%, and Over 2.5 goals is predicted at 66%. Recent form reveals Bucheon FC 1995 with four losses and a draw in their last five matches, while Gwangju FC has one win, three draws, and one loss. This form could impact the outcome, despite Gwangju FC's slight edge in the probabilities.
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC: model vs market
| Source | Bucheon FC 1995 | Draw | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bucheon FC 1995 and Gwangju FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Bucheon FC 1995 / Gwangju FC)
- 0.86 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Bucheon FC 1995 / Gwangju FC)
- 1.35 / 1.48
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bucheon FC 1995 goals. Columns: Gwangju FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Gwangju FC | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bucheon FC 1995 or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Gwangju FC) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gwangju FC win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Bucheon FC 1995 and Gwangju FC recent form
Bucheon FC 1995
0W 1D 5L
Gwangju FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bucheon FC 1995 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-7
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gwangju FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-7-8
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 2 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bucheon FC 1995 at home only, Gwangju FC away only.
Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bucheon FC 1995 1 · draws 1 · Gwangju FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 0-0 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gwangju FC | 0-1 | Bucheon FC 1995 | K League 1 |
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Before and after this match
- Bucheon FC 1995, previous: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995: odds and pick
- Gwangju FC, previous: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC prediction