Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC preview
In the K League 1 fixture between Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC, the model gives Gwangju FC a 40% chance to win, while Gimcheon Sangmu FC has a 34% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. The expected goals for Gwangju FC is 1.61, slightly higher than Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 1.48.
The model suggests a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability for both teams to score. However, Gwangju FC's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Gimcheon Sangmu FC has only 1 win in their last 6. This could impact the outcome and the expected scoring.
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC: model vs market
| Source | Gwangju FC | Draw | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Gwangju FC / Gimcheon Sangmu FC)
- 1.29 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Gwangju FC / Gimcheon Sangmu FC)
- 1.34 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gwangju FC goals. Columns: Gimcheon Sangmu FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gwangju FC | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gwangju FC or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gwangju FC win by 2+ | 21% | 4.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC recent form
Gwangju FC
2W 2D 2L
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gwangju FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 17
- They have won 2 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-9-4
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gwangju FC at home only, Gimcheon Sangmu FC away only.
Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gwangju FC 2 · draws 5 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-2 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-07-22 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Gwangju FC | 1-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-0 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-0 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2024-06-15 | Gwangju FC | 2-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
| 2024-04-06 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-1 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2020-10-25 | Gwangju FC | 0-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | K League 1 |
Other Relegation Group - 34 fixtures
- Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC 2026-11-01
- FC Anyang vs Bucheon FC 1995 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Gwangju FC, previous: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC prediction
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC, previous: Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Daejeon Citizen, 2026-10-24