Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC: model vs market
| Source | Jeju United FC | Draw | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jeju United FC, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju United FC | 1.70 | 1.75 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.73 | -0.05 |
| Gwangju FC | 4.60 | 4.30 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.47
- Attack rating (Jeju United FC / Gwangju FC)
- 1.08 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Jeju United FC / Gwangju FC)
- 1.10 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jeju United FC goals. Columns: Gwangju FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jeju United FC | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Gwangju FC | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jeju United FC or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Gwangju FC) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jeju United FC win by 2+ | 22% | 4.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC recent form
Jeju United FC
1W 2D 3L
Gwangju FC
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jeju United FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gwangju FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-7-8
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 2.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 3 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jeju United FC at home only, Gwangju FC away only.
Expected lineups
Jeju United FC lineup
- 7 Chang-Jun Park
- 24 Choi Byung-Wook
- 94 Emerson Negueba
- 1 Kim Dong-Jun
- 41 Kim Jae-Woo
- 40 Kim Ryun-Seong
- 18 Kim Sin-Jin
- 8 Lee Chang-Min
- 47 Min-jae Park
- 33 Park Su-Bin
- 2 Tobias Figueiredo
Bench: J. Célestine, Gi-min Kwon, Lee Kun-Hee, Shin Sang-Eun, Chung Woon, E. Çinari, Rim Chang-Woo, Dong-hwi Kang, Heo Ja-Ung
Gwangju FC lineup
- 50 A. Ba Loua
- 10 Choi Kyoung-Rok
- 9 Ha Seung-Un
- 18 J. Iredale
- 17 João Pedro
- 23 Kim Dong-Hwa
- 21 Kim Jong-Suk
- 22 Kwon Sung-Yun
- 3 Lee Min-Gi
- 39 Min Sang-Gi
- 40 Shin Chang-Moo
Bench: Kim Kyeong-Min, Ahn Young-Kyu, Ju Se-Jong, Yu Je-Ho, Jung Ji-Hun, Yong-hyuk Kim, Bae Jin-Woo, Kim Woo-jin, Moon Min-seo
Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Jeju United FC 3 · draws 2 · Gwangju FC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Gwangju FC | 0-1 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gwangju FC | 1-2 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Jeju United FC | 0-0 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Gwangju FC | 2-0 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Jeju United FC | 0-1 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-06-18 | Jeju United FC | 0-1 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2025-04-06 | Gwangju FC | 1-0 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Jeju United FC | 0-0 | Gwangju FC | K League 1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Gwangju FC | 0-2 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
| 2024-06-30 | Gwangju FC | 2-1 | Jeju United FC | K League 1 |
Other Relegation Group - 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Jeju United FC, previous: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC prediction
- Gwangju FC, previous: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC: odds and pick