FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 preview
In the match between FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Lugano at 80%, with a most likely scoreline of 3-1, which has a 7% chance of occurring. FC Lugano has been in excellent form, winning their last 6 matches, while FC Basel 1893 has struggled, recording only 2 wins in their last 6 games.
The model indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 87% and a 71% chance for both teams to score. However, if FC Basel 1893 can improve their form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from FC Lugano, the predicted outcome could change.
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893: model vs market
| Source | FC Lugano | Draw | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Published | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.28 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.59, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 1.57 | 1.55 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
| FC Basel 1893 | 4.75 | 4.90 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.46
- Attack rating (FC Lugano / FC Basel 1893)
- 1.78 / 1.02
- Defence rating (FC Lugano / FC Basel 1893)
- 0.75 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Lugano goals. Columns: FC Basel 1893 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Lugano | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.30 | |
| FC Basel 1893 | 17% | 6.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Lugano or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Basel 1893) | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win by 2+ | 60% | 1.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893 recent form
FC Lugano
6W 0D 0L
FC Basel 1893
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Lugano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
FC Basel 1893 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Lugano at home only, FC Basel 1893 away only.
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Lugano 6 · draws 2 · FC Basel 1893 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | FC Basel 1893 | 1-3 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-05-17 | FC Lugano | 4-0 | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-02-15 | FC Basel 1893 | 1-1 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-11-09 | FC Basel 1893 | 0-1 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-08-10 | FC Lugano | 3-1 | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-05-10 | FC Lugano | 2-5 | FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| 2025-04-06 | FC Basel 1893 | 2-0 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| 2025-01-19 | FC Lugano | 2-2 | FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
| 2024-07-27 | FC Basel 1893 | 1-2 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| 2024-04-02 | FC Lugano | 2-0 | FC Basel 1893 | Super League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- FC ST. Gallen v Servette FC — match page 2026-10-31
- Grasshoppers vs FC Vaduz — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Luzern vs FC Sion 2026-10-31
- BSC Young Boys v FC Zurich — match page 2026-11-01
- Lausanne vs FC Thun 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- FC Lugano, previous: FC Thun – FC Lugano, 2026-10-25
- FC Lugano, next: FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
- FC Basel 1893, previous: FC Basel 1893 – Grasshoppers, 2026-10-25
- FC Basel 1893, next: Grasshoppers – FC Basel 1893, 2026-11-28