FC Zurich vs FC Luzern preview
In the match between FC Zurich and FC Luzern, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Zurich at 38% and FC Luzern at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 7% probability. Both teams have shown decent form, with FC Zurich winning 3 of their last 6 matches and FC Luzern winning 3 as well.
The model predicts a high chance of goals, with 79% for Over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. If either team underperforms or if the match is more defensive than expected, these predictions could be off.
FC Zurich vs FC Luzern: model vs market
| Source | FC Zurich | Draw | FC Luzern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 23% | 40% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Published | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Zurich vs FC Luzern odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Luzern, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Zurich | 2.55 | 2.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| FC Luzern | 2.33 | 2.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Zurich and FC Luzern expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (FC Zurich / FC Luzern)
- 0.96 / 1.08
- Defence rating (FC Zurich / FC Luzern)
- 1.11 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Zurich vs FC Luzern score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Zurich goals. Columns: FC Luzern goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Zurich vs FC Luzern goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Zurich vs FC Luzern
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Zurich | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| FC Luzern | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Zurich or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Luzern) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Luzern win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Zurich and FC Luzern recent form
FC Zurich
2W 2D 2L
FC Luzern
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Zurich at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
FC Luzern away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Zurich at home only, FC Luzern away only.
FC Zurich vs FC Luzern head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: FC Zurich 1 · draws 1 · FC Luzern 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | FC Luzern | 1-0 | FC Zurich | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-02-14 | FC Zurich | 1-4 | FC Luzern | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-11-08 | FC Zurich | 3-2 | FC Luzern | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-08-03 | FC Luzern | 1-1 | FC Zurich | Switzerland Super League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- FC Zurich, previous: FC Aarau v FC Zurich analysis
- FC Luzern, previous: FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern: odds and pick